No ‘String of Pearls’, it’s the Dragon in the Indian Ocean

By Mahendra Ved 

Forget the “String of Pearls” story about how China is supposedly surrounding India on the high seas. China is not just on the sea, but also on land, in air and deeply involved in the economies of all of South Asia and beyond.

Two events in India’s neighbourhood taking place on a single day, November 14, show the extent to which the Chinese reach has extended and is expected to grow phenomenally. They need to be taken into account by India’s strategic planners.

One was Pakistan’s Gwadar port going operational and the other was the announcement in Dhaka that Bangladesh was getting its first-ever submarine from China.       

Last Monday, the first major trade cargo departed from Gwadar, marking operationalisation of the port designed and built by China. That also marked the completion in just about two years of the project to feed the port under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) under the Chinese One Belt-One Road initiative.

Flagging off the cargo, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said the CPEC will “integrate development and commerce of various regions across Asia and Europe by increasing connectivity and Pakistan Vision 2025". He further said that it seeks "to transform Pakistan into a regional hub of trade, commerce and manufacturing by harnessing its geo-strategic location into a geo-economic advantage". 

Taking in the big picture, he said the CPEC “will help integrate South Asia, China and Central Asia and offer opportunities for people in this region, and investors all over the world”.

The CPEC is central to the Sino-Pak vision and also to the Pakistani leadership as a panacea to all the ills affecting the country and of an acute feeling of being isolated after the United States under Barack Obama and much of Europe leaned towards India.

At the event, the Prime Minister was accompanied by the army chief, Gen. Raheel Sharif. Both have attributed Pakistan’s current tensions with India to part of the latter’s efforts to ’frustrate’ CPEC.

The November 14 departure of trade cargo from Gwadar marks a decisive arrival for China in the Arabian Sea and the Gulf region. From there, two ships — Al Hussain Zanzibar and Cosco Wellington —  set sail for ports in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, the United Arab Emirates and the European Union.

The Chinese have moved fast in Pakistan when, by contrast, there is little push on the India-Iran-Afghanistan accord to develop the Chabahar port in Iran -- less than 100 km from Gwadar -- and build a railway line that would link Chabahar to landlocked Afghanistan and thence to Central Asia. 

The project, with the blessings of the Obama administration, was also to get Japanese participation with the likely visit to Iran of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. But a Japanese official recently said there was no word from the promoters of Chabahar seeking any financial participation.  

The announcement in Dhaka about it getting its first-ever submarine from China comes a few weeks ahead of the visit to India of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, likely in the latter half of December. A range of political and economic issues are expected to be on the agenda.

However, Bangladesh has for long placed its military eggs in the Chinese basket. Irrespective of the political colour of the regime in Dhaka, this has been a continuing and expanding process, making China the largest trade partner and the No.1 supplier of military hardware to Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, China’s deep involvement in Myanmar is a continuing story irrespective of whether the Generals rule the country or the present civil-military leadership. So is China’s commitment on several projects in Nepal, including a railway line that can be extended right up to the Nepali border with Bihar. 

Nepal wants to maintain careful equidistance with India and China. Similarly, Sri Lanka, under heavy debt from China, wants to compensate the latter with several projects that the Maithripala Sirisena government has held back.

 Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe in July proposed to China’s Ambassador Yi Xianliang varying degrees of control over some of Sri Lanka’s biggest infrastructure projects, including the Mattala International Airport and portions of the Hambantota deep sea port, and wondered if Sri Lanka could receive some debt relief.

 China refused the suggestions saying it was not possible under the Chinese law. But it has continued to promise “fullest cooperation” and that such deals should be conducted via investors on proper commercial terms. While China’s government will not swap debt for equity, it will help clear the road for Chinese companies to take over key projects in Sri Lanka. IZP, a Chinese informational technology company, has been put forward as a potential purchaser of Mattala International Airport, while COSCO is looking into expanding operations at the Hambantota deep sea port.

 The fact of the matter is that India has neither the capacity, nor the political intent, to reach out to its neighbours with investments and projects. Indeed, many of the projects awarded to it have lagged behind for several reasons.

 That being the case, India has much more to worry and work on beyond countering the “String of Pearls”. The Dragon has arrived in the Indian Ocean.      

(Mahendra Ved is a senior journalist and President, Commonwealth Journalists Association (CJA). Comments and suggestions on this article can be sent to editor@spsindia.in) 

Diwali: Minorities are Safe in Pakistan

By Sajjad Shaukat

Although Diwali or Deepavali is the spiritual festival of Hindus, yet it is also celebrated by the followers of Buddhism,, Jainism and Sikhism who observe various customs related to Diwali. Besides India, it is also commemorated in in Pakistan, Fiji, Guyana, Malaysia, Maritius, Myanmar, Nepal, Singapore, Sri Lanka etc.

The festival preparations and rituals typically extend over a five-day period, but the main festival night of Diwali coincides with the darkest—new moon night of the Hindu Lunisolar month Karitika in Birkram Sambat calendar. Diwali night falls between mid-October and mid-November. People in different regions in India may celebrate Diwali on various dates. This is because traditional lunar calendars can be interpreted in different ways.

Its celebration includes millions of lights shining on housetops, outside doors and windows, around temples and other buildings in the communities and countries where it is observed.

Many people make a special effort to clean their homes and yards before Diwali. They may also wash themselves with water and fragrant oils, wear new clothes and give gifts of sweets to family members, close friends and business associates. Fireworks are set off in the evening in some areas. Melas (fairs) are held in many towns and villages.

As regards Pakistan, Diwali festival is also celebrated, as tens of thousands of Hindus are living in this country and like other religious minorities, they enjoy all the rights as the citizens of Pakistan.

It may be recalled that during the PPP government, August 11 was official declared National Minorities Day by the former President Asif Ali Zardari in 2009 in line with the historic speech of founder of the nation Quaid-e-Azam Mohammad Ali Jinnah at the Constituent Assembly on August 11, 1947. In his speech, Quaid-e-Azam said, “You are free; you are free to go to your temples, you are free to go to your mosques or to any other place of worship in this state of Pakistan. You may belong to any religion or caste or creed that has nothing to do with the business of the state.”

There have been numerous Non-Muslims who have risen to the rank of Brigadier; and in the 1990, the first Christian promoted to the Rank of Major General was Julian Peter who commanded the 14th Div in Okara Cantt. Capt. Hercharn Singh, the first Sikh as Commissioned Officer in Pakistan Army.

Particularly, a Rana Bhagwandas was the first Hindu and the non-Muslim who was appointed acting Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of Pakistan for a few days in 2005 and 2006, during the absence of then Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry from the country. He was again appointed as acting Chief Justice of Pakistan during the judicial crisis in 2007. After retirement from the Supreme Court, Bhagwandas was appointed as the Federal Public Service Commission.(FPSC) chairman in November 2009.

However, in the same speech, Quaid-e-Azam said, “We are starting in the days where there is no discrimination, no distinction between one community and another, no discrimination between ones caste or creed and another. We are starting with this fundamental principle that we are all citizens, and equal citizens of one state.”

It is mentionable that in accordance with the vision of Quaid-e-Azam, the Constitution of 1973 protects the real rights and interest of minorities, living in Pakistan.

Every year, on August 11, Pakistan officially celebrates the National Minorities Day to honour the services and sacrifices, rendered by religious minorities for the country over the years. This very day also recognizes the contribution and sacrifices of minorities in creation of Pakistan and nation-building.

On this occasion, events, seminars and social gatherings are arranged across the country by members of various religious minorities and the ministry of National Harmony.

Shahid Mairaj, the Dean of the Cathedral stated in his message, on August 11, 2015 stated, “The governing principle is to let people of every faith live in peace as they choose, and understand that the state belongs to everyone. This country is our mother, and it is a duty for all of us to help it to advance and flourish.”

In this regard, Member Punjab Assembly and minorities’ leader Najmi Saleem remarked, “Minorities in Pakistan have exactly the same rights and responsibilities as other citizens”.

Minister Incharge for National Harmony Dr. Paul Bhatti said, “The Minorities Day provides us an opportunity to renew the pledge for the promotion of tolerance and interfaith harmony as in a pluralistic society, there can always be a divergence of opinion on a number of issues, but these differences can be solved through interfaith harmony which means a cooperative and positive interaction between people of different religions, traditions, faiths, and spiritual or humanistic beliefs, at all levels.”

He acknowledged by pointing out, “Many steps have been taken by the Government for the protection and promotion of minorities like the reservation of 5 percent quota in Government jobs/services, enhancement representation in the parliament, declaration of August 11 as the Minorities Day, including observance of optional holidays and celebration of the festivals of minorities at official level”.

A Sikh leader, Sardar Bishan Singh shared similar thoughts and pointed out that all citizens of Pakistan worked together for the growth of the country.

It is notable that the Ministry of National Harmony was formed after the devolution of Ministry of Minority Affairs to acknowledge the sacrifices and services of minorities to promote peace, patience and tolerance for creating an understanding and brotherhood among the people of different schools of thought.

Nevertheless, since the formation of Pakistan, minorities are contributing in every sphere of life and their political involvement is also worth appreciating.

But, it is regrettable that in the recent years, with the support of anti-Pakistan groups like Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA), Jundullah and Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), ISIS (Also known as Daesh, ISIL), including their affiliated outfits, Indian secret agency RAW which has well-established its network in Afghanistan arranged a number of terror-attacks on Ahmadis, Christians, Sikhs and Hindus in order to distort the image of Pakistan abroad.

In this connection, some terror-events might be cited as instance. In May, 2009, Indian backed militants had forcibly taken over the shops and homes of the 35 Sikh families in the Orakzai Agency in Pakistan. On May 28, 2011 armed assaults on two Ahmadi mosques in Lahore killed more than 70 people. More than 80 people died and 150 injured when two suicide attackers struck the All Saints Church in Peshawar on September 22, 2013. On March 17, 2015, at least 15 people were killed and more than 70 injured when two Taliban suicide bombers attacked churches in Lahore. In 2016, these terror attacks continued particularly in Balochistan. Indian supported TTP and ISIS claimed responsibility for these terrorism-related assaults. In this context, investigations showed that RAW was behind these subversive acts. In fact, besides other terror attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, FATA, Balochistan and Karachi, assaults on religious communities are part of the Indian scheme to create chaotic situation in Pakistan, because it is the only nuclear country in the Islamic World. In the recent years, the foreign-backed terror groups also targeted Hindus in the Sindh province to defame Pakistan.

While, India which claims an arch secular state has surprised the world because of continued attacks on other minority groups, especially Christians, Muslims and Sikhs—and events of forced conversion of Christians and Muslims into Hindus.

Unlike India, where religious minorities are being targeted by the Hindu fundamentalist groups like the ruling party BJP, RSS, Shiv Sena etc., all the minorities such as Christians, Ahmadis, Hindus, Sikhs, Parsis and Budahists enjoy fundamental rights in Pakistan, including all other rights of citizenry in Pakistan.

Pakistan which came into existence on the basis of Islamic principles to provide respect and protection to all the segments of society is giving full safety to all the minorities as mentioned in the Constitution. Besides minority groups are not only serving in the armed forces, but are also working in other departments. Without any discrimination by the Muslims, they also run their own business and are working in private sectors.

Nonetheless, Diwali festival is also commemorated in Pakistan. Especially in Sindh, Muslims also participate in Diwali celebrations and give gifts sweets and flowers to their Hindus friends. We may concude that religious minorities are quite safe in Pakistan.

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations

Email: sajjad_logic@yahoo.com

The United States is giving Putin the green light for atrocities

By Editorial Board 

ON MONDAY, Vladi­mir Putin and Donald Trump spoke by phone about Syria and agreed on “the need to work together in the struggle against the No. 1 common enemy — international terrorism and extremism,” according to a Kremlin statement. Hours later, Russia and its Syrian allies launched a massive new bombing campaign against eastern Aleppo and other rebel-held territories. Just a coincidence? Not likely, given what we know about Mr. Putin.

There are no Islamic State forces in Aleppo, though Mr. Trump does not appear to be aware of that fact. There are an estimated 250,000 civilians who, according to the United Nations, received the last available food rations last week. There are also rebel forces that until now have been trained and supplied by the United States and its allies, as well as groups linked to al-Qaeda. Surrounded by Syrian, Iranian and Shiite militia forces since July, all face the same brutal ultimatum President Bashar al-Assad has delivered to other rebel-held areas: Surrender, or die through bombing or starvation.

Mr. Putin’s evident aim is to support the Assad regime in a campaign to overrun the city, and perhaps other rebel-held areas, during the 2½ months of the U.S. presidential transition. If so, the result will likely be the worst humanitarian catastrophe yet in a war that has already seen more than 400,000 people killed by bombing, chemical weapons, torture and other depravities. Yet neither the outgoing nor the incoming U.S. president appears willing to do anything to prevent this calamity.

President Obama was asked about Aleppo at his news conference Monday by a journalist who pointed out that the United States had intervened to prevent a similar assault on the Libyan city of Benghazi. “We don’t have that option easily available to us,” said Mr. Obama, who recently set aside several such options, such as grounding the Syrian air force. He added that the administration would continue to press for “humanitarian safe spaces and cease-fires” before conceding, “I recognize that that has not worked.” While the honesty was welcome, Mr. Obama’s apparent willingness to watch fecklessly as hundreds of thousands of people are starved and bombed during his final weeks in office is morally abject. It will deepen the ineradicable stain Syria will leave on his legacy.

Mr. Trump, for his part, has all but given Mr. Putin the green light for atrocities. While we don’t know the specifics of what was said in his conversation with the Russian ruler, the president-elect in an interview with the Wall Street Journal on Friday repeated that “Syria is fighting ISIS and you have to get rid of ISIS. Russia is now totally aligned with Syria.”

Again, the Syrian regime is not fighting the Islamic State in Aleppo. It is bombing and besieging its own citizens, with Russian and Iranian help. In refusing to allow aid deliveries and in targeting hospitals, it is willfully committing crimes against humanity. “I don’t think anybody wants a quarter of a million people to be starving in east Aleppo,” said Jan Egeland, the head of a U.N.-backed humanitarian task force. Tragically, he is wrong. The Assad regime and Mr. Putin want it. Mr. Obama is unwilling to prevent it. And Mr. Trump is, at best, indifferent.

Read more on this topic:

John Allen and Charles R. Lister: Bring Syria’s Assad and his backers to account now

Fred Hiatt: A soliloquy on Syria

Anne Applebaum: The disastrous nonintervention in Syria

Richard Cohen: Obama’s hallucinatory excuses on Syria

Josh Rogin: Putin and Assad could face justice for war crimes in Syria

Balochistan Blasts and the Issue of Pak-Afghan Border

By Sajjad Shaukat

At least 65 people were killed and more than 100 others were injured when a blast struck at the shrine of the Sufi saint Shah Noorani in Balochistan’s Hub Tehsil on November 12, this year.

The Islamic State group (Also known as Daesh, ISIS, ISIL) claimed responsibility for the attack via Amaq, its affiliated news agency.

ISIS claimed responsibility for a terror attack on the Police Training College in Quetta-the provincial capital of Pakistan which left at least 60 individuals dead on October 24, 2016.

Earlier, an affiliated faction of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan Jamaat-ur-Ahrar (TTP-JA) took responsibility for a deadly suicide bombing in Quetta, which killed at least 74 people on August 8, 2016 in an attack at the government-run Civil Hospital. The Middle East-based movement of the ISIS also accepted responsibly for that blast.

However, it was part of ploy that two terrorist groups accepted responsibility for the terror assaults in Quetta to divert the attention from the US-led India and Israel. Especially, Washington and New Delhi are playing double game with Pakistan to obtain the clandestine aims, particularly by trying to sabotage the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).

It is of particular attention that the blast at the shrine of the Shah Noorani exploded, one day before the Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif inaugurated the Gwadar port which is a warm-water, deep-sea port on the Arabian Sea in Balochistan, and is the center of $46 billion Pak-China project of the CPEC.

Following the inauguration ceremony, the port has formally been operationalized for trade activities through the western route of CPEC. In this regard, Prime Minister Sharif said, “I want to make it clear that CPEC is not only for a particular province but for entire Pakistan…the enemy of CPEC is enemy of Pakistan…Pakistan will leave no stone unturned to materialize the CPEC in time.”

Pakistan’s Army Chief General Raheel Sharif who also participated in inauguration event has repeatedly stated that Pakistan will complete the CPEC project at every cost.

Nevertheless, regarding the terror attack on the Police Training College, IG FC Major General Sher Afgun had informed the press that the attackers acted on directions from Afghanistan and the initial investigation suggests that the terrorists were affiliated with the outlawed Lashkar-e- Jhangvi Al Almi militant group. He elaborated, “We came to know from the communication intercepts that there were three militants who were getting instructions from Afghanistan.”

Notably, as part of the dual strategy, CIA, RAW and Mossad are in connivance with the Afghan intelligence agency, National Directorate of Security (NDS) and other terrorist groups. With latest capture of six NDS supported terrorists in Balochistan, the number of NDS backed terrorists arrested and killed by Pakistani Intelligence agencies has crossed over 126. These external secret agencies are particularly supporting the TTP which is hiding in Nuristan and Kunar provinces of Afghanistan. Reportedly, Mullah Fazlullah led TTP is being prepared to carry out a fresh wave of terror activities inside Pakistan, as the latter has become center of the Great Game owing to the ideal location of Balochistan.

Located on the southwestern coast of Pakistan, Balochistan’s Gwadar seaport is close to the Strait of Hormuz from where more than 17 million barrels of oil passes every day. Its location among South Asia, the oil-rich Middle East, and oil and gas-resourced Central Asia has further increased its strategic significance. Besides, Balochistan’s abundant mineral resources irritate the eyes of the US, India and Israel which intend to weaken Pakistan for their collective aims, as the latter is also the only nuclear country in the Islamic World.

As regards Balochistan, every Pakistani knows that the militant outfits like ISIS and separatist groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and their affiliated groups, including Jundollah (God’s soldiers) and Lashkar-i-Janghvi which have been creating unrest in the Balochistan get logistic support from RAW and Mossad with the tactical assistance of CIA. In the recent years, these terrorist outfits massacred many persons through suicide attacks, bomb blasts, targeted killings and sectarian violence. These externally-supported insurgent groups had kidnapped and killed many Chinese and Iranian nationals in Pakistan including Iranian diplomats. They have claimed responsibility for a number of terror assaults, including those on Shias in Balochsitan and Iranian Sistan-Baluchistan.

In fact, like Syrian war, as part of the double game, CIA, RAW and Mossad are especially using ISIS terrorists who are behind the latest blasts in Balochistan to obtain the covert aims of their countries against Pakistan, China and Iran.

It is also of particular attention that arrest of the Indian spy Kulbushan Yadav in Balochistan has exposed Indian undeclared war against Pakistan. While addressing a joint press conference with Federal Minister for Information Pervaiz Rasheed, Director General of Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) Lt. Gen. Asim Saleem Bajwa said on March 29, 2016, “Kulbushan Yadav’s arrest is a rare case that does not happen very often.” He disclosed that Yadav was an active officer of the Indian Navy prior to his joining RAW. He also served as a scrap dealer and had a jewelry business in Chahbahar, Iran, after he joined RAW in 2013.

A video was also shown during the press conference in which Yadav confessed that he spied for India. Yadav admitted that he was assigned with the task to create unrest in Karachi and Balolchitan by stating, “I supported the individuals who worked to destabilize Pakistan…I promoted the criminal mindset that was there in Balochistan.” Another task assigned to him was to target the Gwadar Port. Yadav also confessed—funding Baloch separatists along with other terrorists. During investigation, RAW agent Yadav admitted that during his stay, he contacted various Baloch separatist leaders and insurgents, including Dr Allah Nazar Baloch, to execute the task to damage the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project.

Meanwhile, Pakistan’s secret agencies uncovered another ring of Indian spies in the country, working as under covert agents, found involved in subversive activities to destabilize Pakistan. In this connection, on November 2, this year, Islamabad disclosed that five Indian diplomats who were serving at the Indian High Commission in Islamabad found to be part of the RAW spy network and were involved in subversive activities by facilitating and funding terrorism. They were declared as persona non grata and expelled from the country. 

As a matter of fact, almost all the terrorists or terrorist groups and insurgency in Pakistan, especially Balochistan have their connections in Afghanistan. The porous border between Pakistan and Afghanistan is frequently used by human and drug traffickers, criminals and terrorists. Their easy access through unguarded porous border provides opportunity to miscreants to cause havoc inside Pakistan and Afghanistan. For effective counter terrorism measures strong border, control management is vital at Pak-Afghan border. But, Afghan rulers are using delaying tactics in this respect.

Taking note of the anti-Pakistan intruders, Pakistan’s army had decided to build a fence along the border, and to control the border crossings. The strategic project of 1,100-kilometre-long trench with the cost of Rs14 billion which was initiated along Pak-Afghan border in Balochistan by Frontier Corps in 2013 has been completed this year. In the next phase, the project will be extended to the entire long border with Afghanistan which had opposed this plan.

While, from time to time, controversy arises between Afghanistan and Pakistan when Afghan officials refused to recognize the Durand Line which is the 2640 kilometer long and porous border, situated between both the countries.

The issue again came to the limelight on June 12, 2016 when Afghan security forces started unprovoked firing at Torkham border crossing, resulting in injuries to more than 16 Pakistani citizens, including the martyrdom of some Pakistani security personnel. The aim was to stop Pakistan from construction of a gate.  

Durand Line has not been drawn by Pakistan, but it was declared border line by British representative Sir Durand and Afghan Ameer Ghazi Amanullah Khan in 1919. People of Pakistan’s province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and FATA (Tribal Areas) opted to join Pakistan in 1947. So, it is a declared border line and Afghan government has no right to object on any construction along with the Durand line.

There is no doubt that escalation of tension at Pak- Afghan border is deliberately engineered by the elements opposed to peace talks and improvement of bilateral relations between Islamabad and Kabul.

Pakistan is committed to tackle the problem of terrorism mainly emanating from Afghanistan. Hence, the effective border management becomes imperative to control all the terrorism-related infiltrations, drug smuggling etc.  Moreover, effective border management will also facilitate both countries to come out of blame game, as it would offer a strict check on both sides to counter the free movement of terrorists and drug mafia lords, who are the important factors of deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan and its obvious backlash on Pakistan.

Besides, Afghan peace and reconciliation process is a reality despite of its slow pace and continual interruptions. The positive trajectory of constructive relations between Islamabad and Kabul raised alarm-bells amongst the US-led adversaries who are attempting to affect the progressive Pak-Afghan relations through smear and sinister scheming.

Pakistan and Afghanistan have previously suggested many initiatives to resolve their differences. However, as fast as these solutions had emerged they have disappeared due to lack of follow-up. Afghanistan and Pakistan have no other option, but to cooperate and resolve their differences through political and diplomatic dialogue. Besides, there is a huge lack of trust between the both sides. Therefore, it is imperative for both the countries to develop a framework for strategic dialogue, focused on short, medium and long term solutions. As a trust building initiative, an effective border management mechanism will be beneficial for the two countries. Such an establishment will also plug in many loop holes, being manipulated by the terrorist outfits to conduct cross border terrorism. 

It is also of particular attention that the armed forces of Pakistan have broken the backbone of the foreign-backed terrorists by the successful military operation Zarb-e-Azb, which has also been extended to other parts of the country, including Balochistan. And Pakistan’s primary intelligence agency, ISI has broken the network of these terrorist groups by capturing several militants, while thwarting a number of terror attempts.

It is notable that since the government of the Balochistan province announced general pardon and protection to the Baloch militants as part of reconciliation process, many insurgents and their leaders have surrendered their arms and decided to work for the development of Pakistan and the province, peace has been restored in Balochistan.

Nonetheless, recent blasts in Balochistan show that the US-led India and Israel have again started acts of sabotage in the province to weaken Pakistan and to sabotage the CPEC.

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations

Email: sajjad_logic_pak@hotmail.com

Courtesy Veterans Today

Donald Trump: Between Rhetoric and Reality

By Dr Nazir Hussain

The surprise victory of 70 year old Republican candidate, Donald Trump as the 45^th President of the United States, was shocking for everyone in the country and abroad. Against all odds, predictions and media projections, the victory was a stunning blow to the popularity of Hillary Clinton.

The election rhetoric of Trump was alarming and scary while his election victory brings more concerns to the Americans and world at large. Trump brings with him the Republican majority in both houses of the Congress, House of Representatives and Senate, to carry out his reform agenda through legislative power.  

Many observers equate Donald Trump with Nerandara Modi of India in his radical ideas towards minorities and Michael Gorbachev in his process of decline of the Soviet Union. But Donald Trump is placed between his election rhetoric and reality of governance. His reform agenda is focused on migrants, minorities and economic adjustment and his 100-days reform program also include these issues. More alarming is the possible appointment of a special prosecutor for Hillary Clinton to probe against her emails. Unprecedentedly, the fearful Americans are on the streets against the victory of Donald Trump, who is seen as a revolutionary in the US social and political setup.

The world reaction to the victory of Donald Trump is equally worrisome. His closeness to Russia and isolationist approach towards Europe has created serious concerns for France, Germany and the EU, who have shown their concerns and uncertainties of his policies. His anti-China approach may trigger an economic war between the two and his opposition to the Iran Nuclear Deal may bring more chaos and anarchy in the already turbulent Middle East. Importantly, for South Asia, Donald Trump’s bias towards India and his rhetoric against Pakistan are being seen as difficulties ahead for Pakistan.

Though between now and his taking over the White House in January 2017, there are lot of serious doubts and uncertainties, but based on the expert opinions and policy statements, an endeavor is made to benchmark Donald Trump’s future policy preferences and likely impacts in three areas; domestic, global and South Asia/Pakistan.

At the domestic front, the election campaign was unprecedentedly fierce and nasty; even the personal accusations and remarks were passed. The great American values of equality, freedom and liberty were greatly compromised, which exposed deep fault-lines in the US political landscape. Donald Trump’s appeal of ‘Make America Great Again’ studded with toughness against the immigrants, Muslims and minorities struck the right cord of ‘White American Supremacy.’ His victory was the win of ‘Americanism over Globalism’ majority of the white Americans voted for him and snatching a victory over Clinton by winning 276 electoral votes.

However, despite his victory speech of giving a healing hand by announcing that he ‘will be the President of all Americans’ people did not hide their frustration and came out on the streets in major cities chanting slogan against Donald Trump. So the first serious task is to unite the severely divided American nation. According to the New York Times, he has ‘to repudiate the outpouring of racist, sexist, xenophobic, anti-Semitic and homophobic insults and threats…’ Moreover, his plans for ‘economic nationalism’ through tariffs, tax breaks and immigration may push up the inflation, shift more money to the rich, and increase deficits and cost blue-collar jobs.

Lastly, his pledge to prosecute Hillary Clinton over e-mails issue by appointing a special prosecutor may divide the Republicans and Democrats further to the determent of American nationalism. Therefore, Donald Trump has to unite the divided America and take along all the Americans, if the ideals of American liberalism, equality and freedom are to be preserved in the country and promoted in the world.

At the global level, there are mixed reactions of jubilation and concerns. The Russians are upbeat and described Trump’s victory as ‘Great American Revolution.’ It is for first time after the Cold War that the Russian factor became prominent in the US election campaign. Remarks of Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin during the campaign resonated in the massage of facilitation from Russia. Putin expressed the hope that their relations would come out of crisis and could address the pressing international issues for effective response.

However, the US European allies are worried and concerned over Russian factor in the US foreign policy, both in terms of current Russian inroads in Europe and Middle East, and the US ‘isolationist’ approach in the global affairs. Though German Chancellor, Angela Merkel ‘offered to work closely on the basis of common values’ but her cabinet colleagues have shown serious reservations. More serious concerns are raised by the French President Francios Hollande who stated that the American election opens a period of uncertainty and urges for European unity.

President of the EU Council, Donald Tusk and the EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker have expressed their concerns over migration, climate change and Russia. They stated that Trump’s victory has heightened uncertainty about Trans-Atlantic relations and called for greater unity among the EU. They also stated that no country could be great in isolation and asked the US to work together. Therefore, Donald Trump has to revisit his election campaign rhetoric and work with his European allies for global peace and security.

Regarding China, being himself a capitalist businessman, Trump knows the economic, financial and trade competition of China and its outreach to the world. Also, militarily China was being contained through the US allies during the Obama era, dwindled in the recent months after the Philippine and Malaysia sided with China. Though the Chinese leadership has welcomed the president-elect but it would be seen how the new president respond to the assertive China within the American continent and abroad; especially it would be a test case in the light of US isolating itself from its European allies and siding with the Russian leadership.

In Middle East, many leaders from Israel, Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have shown their desire to work closely with the new American leadership. However, the worrisome issue is Donald Trump’s pledge to scrap the Iran Nuclear Deal that had been questioned by many Congressmen. Though the Iranians are downplaying the issue by stating that they have many options available but it has given credence to the views of conservatives Iranians, who were opposed to the deal. Already the US Congress is rushing to block the Boeing aircraft sale to Iran after the election results. The Iranian support is important for the US security interests in Iraq, Afghanistan and against the ISIS. How the policy approach of Donald Trump unfolds for the region could jeopardize the US national security objectives along with the regional security environment.

For South Asia, there are three inter-related issues highlighted by Donald Trump during his election campaign; countering China, courting India and pressurizing Pakistan. If China is to be check-mated, India has to be courted and Trump has shown his clear indications towards working with India. This has put Pakistan in double trouble having anti-India and pro-China approach. Trump’s election slogans against Pakistan’s nuclear program, terrorism and role in Afghanistan are indicators of his policy approach towards Pakistan. Nonetheless, for Pakistan the very same factors are point of optimism that the US cannot ignore.

In the final analysis between now and January 2017 and between election rhetoric and realities of governance, a lot can change and happen. Analysts are hopeful that Donald Trump would be a changed man in the White House but apprehensions and concerns would continue to be heightened till the time he actually implements his reform agenda. Till then the Americans and the world at large are waiting with crossed fingers and fearful minds. Therefore, Donald Trump as the President of United States of America has to rebuild his image, rebuild American nation and rebuild his present and future allies for a peaceful and stable world order.

Writer Confirms Indian Sinister Designs in Afghanistan

By Sajjad Shaukat

While, the US-led developed countries have spent billions of dollars for development in Afghanistan with a view to attaining stability and peace in the war-torn country, but, India has been destabilizing Afghanistan through various sinister designs.

In this regard, renowned writer Musa Khan Jalalzai in his recent article “Afghanistan teeters on the brink, “published in the Daily Times on November 5, 2016, has exposed and confirmed the sinister designs of India in Afghanistan.

In his article, Musa Khan Jalalzai quoted Michael Bassey Johnson who said, “Terrorism will never cease in a country where the so-called leaders are criminals and terrorists in disguise.”

Jalalzai wrote, “Afghanistan’s National Unity Government (NUG) is teetering on the brink. Internal political turmoil has worsened as differences over the power-sharing formula have intensified between the two presidents. Ethnic conflagration has also increased. Ethno-sectarian violence and the brinkmanship of the ruling class may further worsen the situation. The exponentially growing power of the Daesh in northern and eastern Afghanistan, and Taliban’s influence in the south means that the government and its allies have failed to bring stability to Afghanistan. Just recently, a Pandora’s box opened with the abrupt diatribe of Afghan Vice President Abdul Rashid Dostum hammering President Ashraf Ghani for his wrongly designed ethnic policy, nepotism and power monopoly.”

He disclosed, “Mr. Dostum censured Abdullah Abdullah for his failure to act independently. He also expressed dissatisfaction over the ethnic policy of the president and said: “If you speak in Pashtu with President Ghani, you will be a good person, and if you speak Pashtu and you are from the Logar province, then you are a very good person. Mr. Dostum also accused the NDS Chief Muhammad Masoom Stanekzai for making things worse, and criticised unmerited appointments in the armed forces saying: “The corps commander for the north does not deserve his post, and he wants to paint General Dostum as a weak leader in the north and isolate him with their inappropriate behaviour...The jihadist figures appointed by President Ghani and Mr. Abdullah on key military posts had never seen a military base, and could not command even 100 soldiers. We have many experienced generals in our country who are out of job. Why aren’t they appointed on military posts? The 50 percent distribution of power is totally wrong, and this way of governance leads soldiers to death.”

He pointed out, “However, President’s Special Advisor for Governance Reforms, Ahmad Zia Massoud, accused the UNG of nepotism, and warning that this policy may further exacerbate ethnic tensions said: “What is good in this that I am in government as a Tajik and I bring all Tajiks to government? This creates a reaction. And what is good in this that a Pashtun is head of the state and then he appoints all Pashtuns in government offices? This is not good, and it creates a reaction from other ethnic groups.”

The writer elaborated, “In response to the vice president’s accusations, the office of the president termed the outburst as unexpected, and said that such accusations did not befit General Dostum. He said, “At present, Afghanistan has become a typical case of ethnic discrimination. Ethnic groups are more powerful in arms and fighting capabilities than the factional army of the country. In majority provinces, every powerful government official and military commander appoints members of his own ethnic groups to strengthen his position. In intelligence agencies like the NDS and RAMA and defence intelligence, Tajiks and Pashtuns are dominant, while Hazara and Uzbeks have one percent representation. Last month, clashes broke out when Tajiks demanded the reburial of the late king, Habibullah Khan. This action prompted intense rivalry between ethnic groups. On September 1, 2016, the funeral ceremony turned violent in Kabul, in which at least one person was killed and several others were injured. The king’s supporters were mainly Tajiks who were later attacked by General Dostum’s supporters.”

Musa Khan Jalalzai wrote, “The role of state and private media is seen suspicious as it covers language-related topics. Television and radio channels spread prejudice, racism and discrimination day and night. Ethnic tension between Pashtuns and Hazaras and between Tajiks and Pashtuns in northern provinces is openly discussed in talk shows. The recent tension renewed memories of the country’s long-running ethnic conflict that culminated in 1990s, and continued till the end of the Taliban regime in 2001. The ethnic politics of the NUG have failed. Mr Abdullah openly criticises Mr. Ghani for his ethnic favouritism. In Mazar-e-Sharif, Kunduz, Ghor, Baghlan and Takhar provinces, Pashtuns were humiliated, and their land was grabbed by Uzbek and Tajik war criminals.”

He explained, “Afghanistan is now caught up in a much broader series of violence. The Afghan scholar, Dr Zaman Stanizai, views the current ethnic conflict in the country as an unidentified and an unaddressed issue: “The current Afghan crisis is neither correctly identified nor adequately addressed. Pashtuns, who constitute the cohesive core of the otherwise ethnically diverse Afghan society, have earned the distinction of the most resistant for a reason. Like any other majority in any other state, they shoulder a heavier responsibility. The alienation of the majority will neither win hearts and minds nor will it help build institutions for a viable democracy.”

He revealed, “The controversial role of Indian government has further prompted a dangerous ethnic discrimination by providing millions of dollars to warlords and regional groups. Indian agencies—RAW, IB and Defence Intelligence Agency — are making things worse, and creating a strong opposition against the NUG in its efforts of rapprochement with Pakistan and China. Afghanistan is a bad victim of the proxy war between Pakistan and India, but with the inclination of Afghan government towards India, things have gone from bad to worse. India has been supporting the Northern Alliance since 1990s, which resulted in the return of war criminals into Afghanistan’s body politic. India secretly furthers its agenda to transform Afghanistan into its permanent colony by ‘recruiting’ thousands of young Afghans to study in Indian colleges and universities. Some Afghan politicians warn that India needs to balance its policy towards the Pashtuns, as the country has heavily invested in non-Pashtun groups. Only eight percent scholarship for Pashtuns exposes India’s ethnic role in Afghanistan.”

He said in the article, “Ethnic violence has created a hostile environment across Afghanistan. Pashtuns are being subjected to violence and torture in northern Afghanistan. Afghans who returned from Pakistan face violence and harassment, and are struggling to survive in their own country, but regional warlords are not willing to allow them to return to their hometowns. There are more than two million internally displaced Afghans who also face the wrath of war criminals and private militia commanders.”

He added, “Altercations over the agro-land in northern Afghanistan intensified as returnees claimed their occupied land, but without original documents, they are unable to repossess their land. Social media and private channels, repeatedly, illustrate public anger over the inconsideration of government vis-à-vis the armed forces of the country. In 2016, more than 16,000 Afghan soldiers and officers were killed and injured, and all but 2,600 joined Taliban and Daesh groups. In insider attacks 300 soldiers and officers were killed and 200 injured.”

However, Musa Khan Jalalzai has confirmed Indian sinister designs in Afghanistan by straightforwardly exposing the true picture of the Afghan imbroglio.

Nevertheless, waging a prolonged war in Afghanistan, the US and other NATO countries have realized that after the withdrawal of foreign troops, Afghanistan would be thrown in an era of uncertainly and civil war. Unlike India, Pakistan shares common geographical, historical, religious and cultural bonds with Afghanistan. America and its Western partners have repeatedly recognized that Pak-Afghan stability is inter-related, which is essential for their global and regional interests. They know that without Islamabad’s help, stability cannot be achieved there. But, by supporting Indian negative role in Afghanistan at the cost of Pakistan, the US-led countries are encouraging New Delhi to continue anti-Pakistan and anti-Afghanistan moves. Thus, the US-Western countries are destabilizing South Asian security which is equally essential for their regional and global interests.

India’s passion for NSG

Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal

New Delhi’s continuous lobbying for the Nuclear Supplier Group membership manifests its craze for entry into the cartel. Its decision to approach Nuclear Supplier Group (NSG) again during the forthcoming meeting of the Groups officials in Vienna, Austria demonstrates Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s resolve to secure the membership of the supplier club. Though, India’s application will not receive confirmatory response from a few members of the Group, yet it leaves the impression that New Delhi is determined for the full membership of NSG. Moreover, it will provide New Delhi an opportunity to review and assess its situation and options in the cartel.
India and Pakistan had formally applied for the membership in May 2016. 

Both states realize that inclusion in the Group not only enhance their prestige or status in the global politics but also legitimize their import and export of nuclear material for peaceful application. Nevertheless, the 48 members of NSG failed to reach a consensus in cartel’s plenary meeting in Seoul on June 23-24, 2016. The members were ended up in balancing between the political necessities and norms based equitable non-discriminatory criteria. Though, they attempted to resolve this balancing puzzle, yet failed to create a consensus. Both the Great Powers’ politics and mantra in support of the principal of universality or criteria-based approach resulted in a status quo during the June 2016 NSG plenary meeting. Since then, however, New Delhi has robustly been lobbying with the intense support of Washington and its like-minded countries to get a ‘special treatment’ by the NSG members. Simultaneously, Islamabad is also lobbying for the NSG membership.

Paradoxically speaking, keeping India and Pakistan out of the Group due to twentieth century (Cold War) constituted nuclear nonproliferation regime criteria could undermine the NSG’s objectives.Equally, the change in the membership of NSG would affect the credibility of the Group. Therefore, the current members of the NSG are obliged to chalk out an intelligent cum judicious strategy to entertain the applications of both India and Pakistan.
The senior officials from the NSG countries will be meeting on November 11-12, 2016 in Vienna. In this meeting the Consultative Group (CG) of the NSG will present its report on India and Pakistan application status and the response of the members of the cartel. Notably, the CG meets at least twice a year and is tasked to hold consultations on issues associated with the Guidelines on nuclear supply and its technical annexes. Therefore, the members of the cartel would take seriously the report of the CG on the status of India and Pakistan applications for the NSG membership.
The role of NSG Troika is significant in the smooth function of the cartel. The current NSG Chair, together with the previous and the future Chair, form the NSG Troika. Currently, the members of Troika are Mr Young-wan SONG (Current Chair of the NSG: Republic of Korea), Mr. Rafael Mariano Grossi (Previous Chair of the NSG: Argentina) representative of Switzerland, the future Chair of the NSG. Among the troika members Mr. Grossi is candidly supporting India’s bid for NSG. He is aspiring for the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General’s post. The Agency history reveals that without the support of United States securing the IAEA Director General’s is impossible. Therefore, Mr. Grossi is indirectly pleasing the United States by lobbying for India in the NSG.

Since June 2016 NSG plenary meeting the officials of India had approachedtheir Chinese counterpart twice for softening/revising the China’s principle stance on the NSG membership aspirants criteria. Nevertheless, Beijing maintains its two-step approach, i.e. draft “non-discriminatory” criteria for non-NPT signatories and then take up specific applications. Importantly, today, India is encounter tough resistance in getting the membership of the NSG.The trends reveal that India would not be able to alter the positions of the Austria, China and Ireland. India abstained from the United Nations First Committee Resolution (L.41) to express its displeasure on the opposition of Austria and Ireland. The Resolution was sponsored by Austria and Ireland. It aims to draft a legally binding instrument to ban nuclear weapons. In a tit for tat reaction both Austria and Ireland voted against the Indian proposal for a convention “to ban the use of nuclear weapons and then their possession.” Conversely, the Indians succeeded in softening the stance of Brazil and New Zealand on the membership subject. Brazilian President Michel Temer gave impression that he understands India’s positionand New Zeland’S Prime Minister John Key promised to his Indian counterpart contribute to “constructively” contribute in the process.

The preceding discussion underscores that despite New Delhi’s hectic lobbying and engagement three countries, i.e. China, Austria and Ireland will continue to insist on chalking out general criteria for non-NPT entrants in the forthcoming meeting of cartel officials.Hence, during November 11-12, 2016 meeting India would not secure the consensual support for its bid for the membership of the Nuclear Supplier Group.
— The writer is Associate Professor, School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.