Zardari's Frontal Attack

Zahid Hussain

THE tension between the Sindh government and the security forces has been building up for some time, and it was just a matter of time that the situation would blow up. Asif Ali Zardari’s outburst on Tuesday against the generals has now brought the confrontation to a head — with the federal government standing clearly by the military.
The former president seems to have thrown down the gauntlet. Whatever happens next, the survival of the Sindh government is now at stake. Political observers describe the last-minute cancellation of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s meeting with Mr Zardari as ominous.
What made Mr Zardari launch a frontal attack on the military leadership? Most observers and even some PPP leaders agree that it was a reaction to the raid early this week by the Rangers on the Sindh Building Control Authority office. “The links lead to senior PPP leaders,” says a source familiar with the investigation.
Earlier, Rangers had released a report about the crime situation in Karachi, accusing political parties of being directly involved in land-grabbing, extortion and smuggling — swindling billions of rupees every year. This the Sindh government saw as a deliberate move to undermine the civilian administration. “The Rangers have for a long time been transgressing the force’s mandate to embarrass the provincial government,” says PPP Senator Farhatullah Babar.
Those two incidents last week may have proved to be crunch points, but the tension between the federal law enforcement agency and the Sindh government has been mounting for quite some time. PPP leaders often complained of the Rangers establishing a parallel authority and getting involved in affairs beyond their jurisdiction. The allegations have been firmly refuted, though, by the federal government and the Rangers.
Although the Rangers were called out in aid of the civil administration and have now been spearheading law enforcement in Karachi for many years, the strain intensified after the formation of the provincial apex committee — that also included the local corps commander and the head of the Rangers — earlier this year under the National Action Plan to fight terrorism.
Some highly placed sources confirm reports about tension brewing between civil and military leaders in the apex committee meetings, with the army and Rangers’ officials taking up issues of widespread corruption and the collapse of administration in Karachi.
Many analysts, however, agree that the ineptitude of the Sindh government and the virtual collapse of civil law enforcement allowed the Rangers to fill the vacuum. The provincial government and PPP leaders ignored repeated warnings, further widening the gap between the army and provincial administration. The action by the Rangers has also provoked the ire of the MQM, which has been the major target of the crackdown.
Interestingly, the provincial government and the PPP leadership vehemently defended the Rangers’ action against the MQM and the alleged extra-judicial killing of the latter’s activists. But the conflict came to a head when the crackdown was extended to the government officials.
According to security officials, the land scam in Karachi that has thrived under the direct patronage of PPP leaders is the biggest source of crime and the major cause of violence between various political parties involved in a turf war. “Why don’t the Rangers go after militant and sectarian groups, which is their responsibility?” questions Farhatullah Babar.
Given the worsening law and order situation, traders and big business started looking towards the military and the demand for the imposition of governor’s rule grew louder. That the corps commander frequently addressed businessmen also raised eyebrows in the civil administration.
All this led to the reinforcement of the suspicion that the noose was being tightened around senior PPP leaders. “The attack on the military leaders by Zardari is a desperate move to pre-empt any action by the Rangers against his close associates,” says Dr Hassan Askari, a leading political analyst.
Although there has not been any public response by the military as yet, a senior official described the speech by the former president as “disgraceful”. The strong condemnation that has come from the prime minister and federal ministers is clear indication that Mr Zardari cannot hope for support from any political party. “Mr Zardari now has very limited options,” says Mr Askari. “The policy of confrontation will not work. He has boxed himself into a corner.”
It remains to be seen, though, how Mr Zardari extricates himself and his party from this situation.
Published in Dawn, June 18th, 2015.

                                                   

Why Pakistan Is Not Myanmar

By Sitara Noor

Last Tuesday, Indian forces carried out surgical strikes inside Myanmar’s territory, reportedly inflicting “significant casualties” which, as per varying estimates, stand at 50-100 militants. As reported, the blitzkrieg maneuvers were done by India’s Special Forces (21 Para), that is a unit under Kolkata-based Eastern Command headquarters, along with troops of Assam Riffeles (27 Sector and 10 Sector). The operation was supported by Indian Air force’s Mi-17 helicopters which targeted NSCN-K camps at two locations Including Tuensang in Nagaland and Ukhrul in Manipur.

The Indian reaction came in response to militants’ attack on Indian military convoy on June 4, which killed 18 Indian soldiers in the Chandel District of Manipur. Following Indian military excursion inside Myanmar, there was a flurry of tweets/statements from Indian political establishment. Terming it revenge, Indian minister in charge of broadcasting, Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore declared the raid “a message for all countries, including Pakistan”. Projecting India’s military and political prowess, he went on to say, “We will strike at a place and at a time of our choosing”. It obviously resulted in firm statements from Pakistan’s political and military leadership alike, reiterating their resolve to protect their land against any Indian adventurism.

It is however important to highlight that Indian political establishment’s statements are inherently contradictory and giving a false impression of India’s military might. The statements drawing parallel between Pakistan and Myanmar may soothe the ears of BJP’s extremist cult essentially the RSS, but they fail to stand the test of political correctness and military capability.

First of all, it is erroneous to assume that it was a solo flight by India without prior permission from the government of Myanmar as some initial reports suggested. To put the record straight, there exists a treaty between the two countries since 1990s on operations across the border and also an agreement that permits locals on both sides for a cross border movement within a range of 15 km on both sides. In the past, there have been instances when Burmese army personnel also crossed the Indian border in pursuit of the Kachin insurgents. Later in 2010, India signed a mutual legal assistance agreement through which Indian insurgents held in Myanmar could be deported for trial under Indian laws. Therefore this operation was carried out under existing treaty and after seeking prior approval from the government of Myanmar. There is no such romanticism vis-à-vis Pakistan. On the contrary, Pakistan and India have a history of border conflicts and Pakistan has made it clear at a number of times that any such adventurism inside Pakistani territory would be considered an act of war.

Secondly, it would be India’s sheer naivety to view Pakistan as a soft swallow. Politically it would be difficult for India to carry out such an action, that too without establishing credible proofs as there are instances in past when some terrorist activity in India blamed on Pakistan, was later on proved to be perpetrated by Hindu extremists. Furthermore, Pakistan maintains a strong professional military force with advanced high tech capabilities to respond to any such action. According to a latest report by eminent American analysts, citing India’s former military officials, India lacks technical and professional capability to carry out such a strike against Pakistan with complete precision. Various reports corroborate that India is far behind in gathering real-time intelligence that is an essential pre-requisite for such an action to begin with. Most importantly both states face altogether different dynamics due to the possession of nuclear weapons. Such a provocative action would certainly let loose escalation spiral, with no possibility of escalation dominance at either side.

The inflammatory jingoistic statements from Indian political establishment, in view of Myanmar operation are nothing but an act of irresponsible statesmanship. It expresses complete absence of political wisdom on their part and ignorance of ground realities. On the other hand, it further strengthens the rationale for having strong conventional as well as nuclear capability to deter any such (mis) adventurism against Pakistan.

The article was published in Eurasia Review on 17 June 2015. 

*The writer is a former visiting fellow at Middleburry Institute of International Studies, Monterey, California. She can be reached at sitaranoor@hotmail.com

Spare the Children

By Rafia Zakaria

ON Thursday, June 11, the head office of the NGO Save the Children received a letter from the Economic Affairs Division of the Pakistan government, ordering it to shut down all its operations in the country.

According to news reports, the NGO had been under scrutiny because of the alleged involvement of its employee, Shakeel Afridi, in a CIA-mandated fake vaccination campaign in the hunt for Osama bin Laden. Following receipt of the letter, Save the Children shut down its operations in various cities. However, on June 14, the Ministry of Interior announced that the charity was being permitted to resume its operations and reopen its offices. No further explanation about the reversal of the decision was provided.

The closure of Save the Children and now its unexplained re-opening raises several crucial issues. First, if there is evidence of wrongdoing on the part of the organisation, especially something as egregious as being involved in espionage, then it would have made sense for the government to release such information to the media and the public prior to issuing an order of closure.

Second, the closure of an international NGO jeopardises the ability of Pakistan’s poor to benefit from the relief work provided by organisations such as Save the Children, further isolating the country’s impoverished from the global community.

Third, given the fact that developing countries like Pakistan desperately need the assistance provided by organisations like Save the Children, what measures of accountability exist (or should exist) for monitoring their activities?

On the first issue, it is crucial that the Ministry of Interior, which has now rescinded the order to suspend operations, share with the public the basis on which the order was first issued. In a country rife with conspiracy theories, it is crucial that the operations of NGOs not be suspended on the basis of doubts and rumours.

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The frivolity implied in decisions made and then overturned is unbecoming of a government that is accountable to the citizens of the country.

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In this case, if evidence against Save the Children’s involvement is present and irrefutable enough for the government to issue an order in the first place, then how could a decision made on its basis be inexplicably rescinded two days later? Surely, evidence of the good work done by Save the Children would have been available to decision-makers who issued the letter on Thursday as it was to those who reversed it days later. The frivolity implied in decisions made and then overturned is unbecoming of a government that is, at least in theory, accountable to the citizens of the country.

Second, the closure of Save the Children should provoke some discussions of how governmental actions such as these can impact the country’s ability to avail itself of the relief and development services provided by such organisations. International news coverage on the issue has underscored the hardships that international NGOs already face in working in Pakistan, citing the similar closure of the Norwegian Refugee Council last year as another example of a seemingly arbitrary government crackdown.

On the domestic front, the government’s inability to crack down on the public-service arms of various militant organisations suggest that only one kind of NGO, the international kind, appears worrisome to those monitoring NGO service provision in the country. The rhetoric of various conservative groups against international NGOs further propagates the impression that it is not the actual work being done by the organisation but the political dividends that may or may not be reaped in the event of their closure that are important to those making decisions regarding their work and lawful presence in the country.

Finally, and perhaps most important, is the issue of NGO accountability at an international level. Unlike governmental aid organisations, NGOs like Save the Children or the American Red Cross are not accountable to any particular government. As long as donors in the Western world continue to contribute, their coffers remain full and they remain largely independent in terms of where and how they spend their money.

A recent report on the American Red Cross’s work in Haiti has revealed the dark side of this arrangement, exposing how the organisation had claimed to build 130,000 houses when it had built only six. Even after the exposé, the Red Cross failed to provide details regarding how $500 million raised for earthquake relief in Haiti was actually spent.

The example of the Red Cross debacle in Haiti is important because it illustrates how governments of developing states like Haiti and Pakistan are really unable to provide any close monitoring of their expenditures. Initially, this fact of NGO independence was imagined as a positive thing, enabling NGOs to avoid government corruption and bureaucracy and deliver relief and development faster and more efficiently. However, as reliance on the work of international NGOs has grown, this lack of oversight and relative independence has become a cause for concern.

With little oversight at the local level and few checks at the international level, there aren’t many obstacles by way of who these NGOs collaborate with, how they spend their money, or hire their workers. In the case of Pakistan, the very possibility that Save the Children could have been involved with a CIA espionage operation reveals just how grisly things can get.

The report of Red Cross corruption in Haiti and the possibility that Save the Children was involved in CIA espionage related to the OBL raid both underscore the need for international mechanisms of oversight on the work of these organisations in countries like Haiti and Pakistan.

Given the work done by Save the Children in Pakistan, it is imperative that the Ministry of Interior release information to the public regarding why the organisation was scrutinised and whether any substantive proof of wrongdoing exists. Given that Save the Children relies on raising money from individual donors, such a public exposition would enable greater transparency regarding its workings and reveal to one and all whether or not anything actually went wrong.

The article was published in Dawn, June 17th, 2015.

HEATING UP AGAIN

By Munir Akram

 AS an extreme summer engulfs the Indo-Gangetic plane, the political temperature is also rising. The Indian defence minister’s extraordinary statement about “fighting terror with terror” amounts to an open admission of India’s role in sponsoring terrorism in Pakistan and confirms the Pakistan Army’s accusation of India’s role in the Balochistan insurgency. The Pakistan army chief’s remarks calling for a solution for Kashmir on the basis of UN resolutions was an obvious reminder that India should not forget its own vulnerabilities.

India’s pronouncements have become increasingly strident. The Indian foreign minister has reiterated the refusal to resume a dialogue with Pakistan unless India’s preconditions are met. The defence minister, apart from the terror gaffe, has revived the far-fetched concern about Pakistan’s nuclear weapons being captured by extremists, in this case by the largely absent extremists of IS or the ‘Islamic State’. Indian officials have also floated the ludicrous claim that Saudi Arabia intends to buy nuclear weapons “off the shelf” from Pakistan. Notably, India launched a protest with China regarding the plan for an ‘economic corridor’ from Gwadar to Khunjerab.

The reasons for the escalating Indian rhetoric against Pakistan are not far to find. First, India is frustrated that Pakistan has not wilted under the pressure New Delhi hoped to generate by cutting off talks and ‘isolating’ Pakistan by its ‘terrorism’ accusations. On the contrary, Pakistan has evolved a more normal relationship with the US, obtained a major strategic commitment from China and opened a new chapter with Afghanistan.

Second, India is concerned that a Pakistan-Afghan normalisation will neutralise the western front India opened against Pakistan (through its support for the Balochistan Liberation Army insurgency and secret sponsorship of the Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan) and reduce Indian influence in Afghanistan. India worked hard with its friends in Kabul to generate opposition to President Ghani’s outreach to Pakistan and the putative deal for Kabul to act against the BLA and the TTP while Pakistan works to promote reconciliation between Ghani and the Afghan Taliban. India has had partial success. President Ghani visited India and has lately voiced discontent with Pakistan. Kabul’s cooperation against the BLA and the TTP also appears to have slowed down. The Pakistan Army’s open allegation of India’s role in Balochistan was also addressed to Kabul.

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India is frustrated that Pakistan has not wilted under the pressure New Delhi hoped to generate.

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Third, India opposes China’s rising role in the region, including in Afghanistan, and particularly its renewed strategic and economic commitment to Pakistan illustrated by the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor initiative. The realisation of this plan would be a major setback to India’s desire to dominate South Asia and isolate Pakistan.

Fourth, domestically, Modi’s ‘shine’ appears to be fading. So far, he has not delivered jobs or improved the lives of the poor. The BJP’s defeat in the Delhi elections to the Aam Aadmi party displayed its slide in popularity. Pakistan-bashing is the standard technique used by Indian governments to revive flagging domestic support. This is, of course, second nature to the extremists of the BJP and the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. Besides Modi, the defence minister, national security adviser and the RSS-linked army chief appear all too eager to prove their credentials to their core constituency.

It is difficult to predict how far India’s ‘fighting talk’ will remain just talk or escalate into another crisis with Pakistan. Unfortunately, there are no modalities in place between India and Pakistan for crisis prevention. There are several scenarios in which the two nuclear powers could find themselves engaged in a dangerous confrontation.

It seems certain that, following China’s commitment to CPEC, India ( and others) may see the fostering of violence in Balochistan not only as pressure point against Pakistan (to ensure its ‘good behaviour’ in Kashmir), but also as a means to prevent China’s direct access to the Arabian Sea, the Persian Gulf and West Asia. Indian (and other) mischief in Balochistan and other parts of Pakistan may escalate. President Ghani may be persuaded not to cooperate with Pakistan in eliminating the support base of the insurgency in Afghanistan. If Pakistan’s counter-insurgency measures in Balochistan are not successful, Kashmir may be brought back into the equation, setting the stage for another India-Pakistan confrontation.

A Kashmir crisis is possible, even without Pakistan’s intervention. The BJP government’s policies in Kashmir — settling Hindus in the Valley, eroding India-held Kashmir’s special status and continued suppression of dissent — have already provoked widespread protest from Kashmiri Muslims. A new Kashmiri revolt is probable. It would evoke popular support in Pakistan, leading to another India-Pakistan crisis.

The spark for such a crisis may be lit by another terror attack in India. Given the anti-Muslim postures of the BJP-RSS government, Muslim militancy is likely to manifest itself more strongly in India. Terror groups, like Al Qaeda or IS, have already declared their intention to instigate such terror attacks. India’s Pavlovian reaction would be to blame Pakistan.

Any one of these scenarios can lead to a disastrous conflict. While India may feel tempted to test its ‘limited war’ concept, Pakistan would operate under the assumption that India’s ‘Cold Start’ doctrine (of sudden and massive attack) is operational. A major military engagement is likely to rapidly involve a missile exchange, with Pakistan seeking to break up large Indian formations, and India responding with attacks on command centres and strategic assets. Since most missiles and aircraft are ‘“dual capable’ (they can be armed with conventional or nuclear weapons), the danger of a conflict escalating to the nuclear level is extremely high.

The destiny of billions cannot be left in the hands of leaders motivated by religious and historical antagonisms or to hope and chance. Over almost 70 years, India and Pakistan have been unable to resolve their disputes rationally. The international community, especially the major powers, must play a more active and responsible role in preventing another war whose catastrophic consequences could reverberate far beyond South Asia.

The article was published in DAWN on 07 June 2015.

Modi Madness

By Hamza Jilani

            With Narendra Damodardas Modi, a Hindu Nationalist taking over as the 15^th Prime Minister of India, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) tightened their grip on Indian Policies. Modi, a controversial figure, domestically and internationally, was elevated from former Chief Minister of Gujarat to the Chief Executive of India; a tea seller from Vadnagar Railway Station has come a long way. Modi joined RSS as a Balswayamsevak (Junior Cadet) when he was eight years old and became the BJP chosen Chief Minister of Gujarat in 2001.His involvement in anti Muslim riots of 2002 is still being debated with Martha Nassbaum commenting “ there is by now a broad consensus that the Gujarat violence was a form of ethnic cleansing, that in many ways it was premeditated, and that it was carried out with the complicity of the State Government and Law Enforcement Agencies”. So much for his past, a google search for top 10 criminals displays his photographs even today!

            Now that Mr Modi is the Indian PM, BJP and RSS Zealots have a free hand to  pursue their anti Pakistan agenda openly. RAW has been re-energized to unleash its sinister designs against Pakistan, Indian Ministers threatening use of terrorism as a tool. Ajit Kumar Doval, a self styled Indian James Bond, has been appointed as the National Security Advisor with the same agenda. Pakistan China Economic Corridor (PCEC) is the latest Indian nightmare for reasons best known to them only and they have been crying hoarse. Naive as they are, forgetting their dirty ploys since the creation of Pakistan, dismemberment of East Pakistan, saturated presence in Afghanistan, meddling in FATA and Balochistan with the only frenzied ambition – damage Pakistan.

            Indian PM visited Bangladesh recently and openly confessed Indian involvement in the breakup of East Pakistan; so much for his statemanship! India – Awami League (AL) partnership is old and time tested. The visit was ostensibly meant to ratify the long pending India Bangladesh Land Boundry Agreement (LBA). The other major pending issue, Teesta water sharing, however, was not discussed. There are plans for Special Economic Zones for Indian Investors in Bangladesh. India is exporting 500 MW of electricity through Bangladesh with an estimated potential of 50,000 MW. Settlement of Maritime Boundry has prospects of joint exploration of oil and gas reserves in Bay of Bengal. New initiatives likely to be announced include direct bus services, rail and road

links. Amidst all this fanfare, irritants like Teesta and Feni Rivers, Farakkha Barrage, terrorist safehavens in Bangladesh, illegal migration, border fencing, trans – shipment issues, Asian Highway, sea boundary demarcation, smuggling, treatment of minorities, trade barriers and imbalances have been left in the doldrums.

            Mission RAW, a book by RK Yadav, a former RAW Officer highlights details of Indian obsession and plans of undoing Pakistan by creating turmoil in its Eastern Wing just three years after its creation in September 1968. Besides an account of RAW Commandos in East Pakistan, he states that “RN Kao, former RAW Chief orchestrated hijacking of an Indian Airliner to Lahore so that Pakistani Flights over Indian Airspace could be banned”. Yadav has also given an account of how Sikkim was merged in India. Mr Zainal Abedin, a senior Bangladeshi Journalist in his book RAW and Bangladesh writes that “as a former student leader and freedom fighter he crossed over to India in 1971 for military training. He soon realized that he had made a big mistake. He states that after the fall of Dhaka, he saw large scale loot and plunder by Indian Troops, their so called liberators. They looted everything from ceiling fans to military equipment, utensils to water taps. Thousands of Army Vehicles were used to carry the looted goods to India. History has recorded few such cruel and heinous plunders. From the Indian conduct it was evident that they treated Bangladesh as a colony. It is now evident, writes Mr Abedin, that India helped in the creation of Bangladesh with the aim that it would be a step towards the reunification of India. Soon after the creation of Bangladesh, India let loose all forces at her command to cripple the newly born country. The most significant player of this heinous game of Akhand Bharat is RAW, which is still eating into the vitals of Bangladesh. Mr Abedin dwells at length on Arthshastra, a book written by Koutillaya and how the Indian Leadership applies his principles even today”. With Sikkim gone, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Maldives and Kashmir are still in their crosshairs. Pakistan remains a painful thorn in their side for standing up to their hegemonic designs. Their wish list stretches even further to Afghanistan, Iran and Central Asian Republics. Too late Mr Abedin, you should have heeded to the advice of your neighbour who had warned you that “Indians would make us their slaves again!”

            So much for history, the latest from Indian adventures? attack on “insurgents” in Myanmar. In East Pakistan it was a War of Liberation, in Manipur it is an insurgency.

Double standards is too decent a term for such insane behaviour. Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, an Indian Minister had the nerve to call it a warning to Pakistan. India  would be well advised to focus on an estimated 30 liberation movements in Kashmir, Khalistan, Assam, Arunachal Pardesh, Tripura, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Manipur, Nagaland, Tamil Nadu and Laddakh with 16 belligerent groups and 68 major organizations, conveniently termed as terrorists, fighting  for their cause. Hindutva, the Hindu political philosophy seeped in prejudice would implode India sooner or later. Mr Modi while sticking to the teachings of Koutillaya must not forget the proverb, people who live in glass houses should not throw stones. Continuous saber rattling could turn into a conflagration which would engulf the whole region, so stop this madness Mr Modi.

Progress of the Operation Zarb-e-Azb

By Sajjad Shaukat

The ongoing military operation Zarb-e-Azb which started on Jun 15, 2014 against the militants in North Waziristan Agency (NWA) is successfully achieving its objectives.

On June 10, this year, Chief of Army Staff, Gen. Raheel Sharif, while recounting the successes of security forces in the Zarb-e-Azb said, “Terrorists have been cleared and dislodged from their strongholds in North Waziristan and Khyber Agency and fight now is moving into last few pockets close to Afghan border.” He laid emphasis on “continuation of the operations till elimination of the last expected and probable terrorists groups and sanctuaries.”

When the Pakistan Government decided to launch this operation, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif took the nation into confidence through parliament, asserting that Pakistan would not be allowed to become safe havens of terrorists. Earlier, DG, ISPR Directorate, Major-Gen. Asim Saleem Bajwa had stated, “Armed forces of Pakistan have launched the operation against foreign and local terrorists…who had been waging a war against the state of Pakistan by disrupting our national life in all its dimensions, stunting our economic growth and causing enormous loss of life and property…with the support of the entire nation, these enemies will be denied space across the country.”

He further stated that military operation would continue till achievement of ultimate objectives. On June 16, 2014, Gen. Raheel Sharif also pointed out, “Operation Zarb-e-Azb has been launched with the objectives of rooting out terrorists, eliminate their sanctuaries in NWA and rid the country of terrorism.”

After the militants of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) massacred 132 school children at Army Public School and College in Peshawar on December 16, 2014, while emphasizing national unity against terrorists, Gen. Raheel had repeatedly stated, “Our resolve has taken new height”, and added “We will continue to go after the inhuman beasts, their facilitators till their final elimination.”

And Gen. Raheel Sharif has himself started supervising the military action against terrorists, and as part the operation, Zarb-e-Azb.

However, since June 15, 2014, the jets of Pakistan Air Force have bombed militants’ hideouts in North Waziristan, and killed thousands of insurgents including foreign militants, while Pak Army has also killed several terrorists through ground offensive and many of them surrendered before the Army.

Undoubtedly, the noble cause followed by troops enabled them to eliminate terrorists, destroyed their strongholds/sanctuaries, demolishing tunnels and factories producing IED (Explosives), while drying the sources of their funds and sinking their public support.

In fact, the different war between Pakistan’s Armed Forces and the TTP insurgents is simply a ‘clash of wills’ between two entities. Military thinkers agree that although the physical force will determine the type and scale of war, yet it is the ‘will to fight’ or ‘moral force’ that determines the outcome of war. Clausewitz puts it this way, “One might say that the physical force seems little more than the wooden hilt, while moral factors are the precious metal, the real weapon.”

In his book, “Fighting Power: German and U.S. Army Performance, 1939-1945”, Creveld identifies the elements of ‘moral force’, whom he calls “fighting power, the willingness to fight and the readiness, if necessary, to die.” The greater these elements, the less vulnerable an armed force will be to demoralization. ‘Moral force’, then, is the crucial factor in determining the combat power of any belligerent.

During the successful military operation, Zarb-e-Azb” retreat of the Taliban from North Waziristan has proved that such elements like ‘will to fight’ and ‘moral force’ have been more found in Pakistan’s Armed Forces then the Taliban militants.

Nevertheless, there are other causes which demoralized the insurgents of the TTP and their affiliated militant outfits. Firstly, strong determination and cohesiveness as noted in Pakistan’s Armed Forces played a key role in expelling terrorists from North Waziristan Agency. In this regard, airstrikes by Pakistan Air Force targeted their strongholds. And during street to street fighting, without bothering for their lives, and by air-dropping commandos at the risky places, our forces made a great headway in disrupting the Taliban supply routes. They besieged them at various hotspots, rendering them unable to send reinforcements to their fighters. Secondly, morale of Pak Army was very high. Thirdly, local people started denying the Taliban sanctuaries, and disrupted their links with each other. Fourthly, general masses of the area opposed the brutal acts of these terrorists which compelled them to leave their houses. They came to know that under the cover of Islamic laws—terror, not Sharia was these militants’ real agenda. Hence, they were misusing Jihad which does not allow suicide attacks in killing their own Muslim brethren.

Undoubtedly, Pakistan’s Armed Forces have successfully broken the backbone and organized capability of terrorists to launch well thought-out attacks against the government assets and on innocent people. They have met serious setbacks in operation Zarb-e-Azb, and shall finally be totally eliminated from Pakistan. It appears, as if the militants of TTP have lost major grounds, and in severe frustration, they are trying to create some kind of so-called pressure on the government and the Armed Forces through some terror-activities which are due to external support of Indian  RAW and other anti-Pakistan powers to these terrorists. But, Armed Forces have castigated them to put up strong resistance.

It is notable that the North Waziristan Agency was the largest tribal agency with difficult and complicated topography. But, by sacrificing their own lives, Armed Forces successfully cleared the region. Therefore, the Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) have been returning to North Waziristan, and Pak Army helped them in their resettlement.

As terrorists had accelerated their anti-social, undemocratic and un-Islamic practices, while they had challenged the writ of the state, and had frightened the entire nation by their terror-acts. Therefore, leaders of various political and religious parties including all segments of society and media anchors—particularly commentators of TV channels, who wanted that a handful of terrorist elements must not be allowed to dictate their agenda and to impose their self-perceived ideology on the majority of Pakistanis are admiring the successes, achieved during the operation Zarb-e-Azb. Now, the whole nation is united against terrorism and is backing the military operation against these brutal militants.

No doubt, the progress of the operation Zarb-e-Azb is very encouraging, as it is fruitfully advancing towards its logical end. At present, especially Pakistan’s media need to show sense of hope and optimism by indicating that the present broad-based military operation will annihilate the terrorists.

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations

Email: sajjad_logic@yahoo.com

Balochistan: Anti-Punjab and Anti-Army Propaganda

By Sajjad Shaukat

The ink on Pak-China agreements related to China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was barely dry when some western media, especially Indian secret agency RAW started playing up the Baloch insurgency. In this regard, the director of The Second Floor (T2F), a social activist Sabeen Mahmud was shot dead by unidentified gunmen in Karachi on April 24, 2015, followed by a bomb blast in Sibi, which killed several persons on April 26. However, she had left T2F after attending the session on Balochistan province, when she was targeted. She was likely to conduct a seminar at LUMS in Lahore about Balochistan. Earlier, on April 11, gunmen killed 20 laborers at a dam construction site in the Turbat district of Baluchistan. On May 29, 2015, 20 people were killed when unknown militants opened fire at the kidnapped passengers in Mastung area of Balochistan—after abduction of two buses. Particularly, on May 13, 45 people were killed when gunmen brutally opened fire on a bus of the Ismaili community in Karachi. Ahmed Marwat, a spokesman for Jundullah which is the affiliated group of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), claimed responsibility for the bus attack.

Like these terror attacks which continue in some way or the other, Karachi bus incident was also handy work of RAW to sabotage the CPEC by showing that if Pakistan government is not able to provide security to its citizens, how it can protect CPEC. Ismailis belong to Hunza (Gilgit/Baltistan) or have a spiritual linkage with this area, are Pakistanis. The CPEC would also originate from the same region.

Similarly, RAW was behind the assassination of Sabeen Mahmud-a well thought-out plan not only to try to harm Pak-China CPEC project, but also to accuse Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). Another aim was also to drive a wedge between Balochistan and rest of Pakistan.

Meanwhile, Indian high officials themselves proved that India is sponsoring terrorism in various regions of Pakistan, particular in Balochistan. In this respect, Indian Defence Minister, Manohar Parrikar, while using the Hindi phrase “kante se kanta nikalna’ (removing a thorn with a thorn) assertively said, on May 23, 2015, “We have to neutralise terrorists through terrorists only…why does my soldier have to do it…the issue could not be discussed beyond this…there are certain things that I obviously cannot discuss here.”

Indian External Affairs Minister, Sushma Swaraj recognized, on June 1, this year that India strongly “opposes $46 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project.”

In this respect, while addressing a ceremony during his Bangladesh tour, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi Modi openly admitted on June 7, this year that Indian forces helped Mukti Bahini to turn East Pakistan into Bangladesh. He elaborated that former prime minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee had played an active role in separating Bangladesh from Pakistan, and he had also come to Delhi in 1971 to participate in the Satyagraha Movement launched by Jana Sangh as a volunteer to garner support for the Mukti Bahini members.

In the recent past, Indian former Army Chief Gen. VK Singh openly confessed that during his tenure, he supervised special army unit, Tactical Support Division (TSD) on the instructions of the then defence minister to sponsor subversive acts in Pakistan, especially in Balochistan.

These blatant admissions by New Delhi endorsed that RAW has well-established its network in Afghanistan, and with the tactical assistance of some anti-Pakistan secret agencies, it is fully backing cross-border incursions and terror-activities particularly in Balochistan so as to destabilize Pakistan. It has continuously been assisting the Baloch separatist elements and anti-Pakistan groups like BLA, Jundullah and TTP including their affiliated outfits with logistic support—the militants kidnapped and killed many innocent people and the security personnel in the province through suicide attacks, bomb blasts, targeted killings and sectarian violence. They also abducted and killed many Chinese and Iranian nationals. Therefore, they are responsible for dumped bodies and extrajudicial killings and the missing persons in the province. On a number of occasions, these insurgent groups claimed responsibility for their acts of sabotage, but India and some external powers have been shifting the blame game of human rights violations in Balochistan towards Pak Army.

In this context, these entities continue a deliberate propaganda campaign against Pakistan Army by always making Army role controversial. They indicate that Punjabi Army never killed people in Punjab; carried out military operations in other provinces like Balochistan. Their main aim is to create resentment among the Baloch against Punjab and Army. In this connection, those who are building Sabeen Mehmood murder case as a campaign for Baloch rights are in fact more interested to demonize Army and ISI rather than helping the poor masses of Balochistan.

Whereas Army has not only been successful in uprooting the anti-state elements, but also contributed a lot in socio-economic development of Balochistan. It is mentionable that besides protecting mega projects, and promoting other developments works, Pak Army set up a number of institutes in Balochistan, which have been providing especially technical training to thousands of Balochis. Pak Army has also been imparting military training to the Baloch youth. The purpose is to bring them in the mainstream of the country.

As a result of the general elections 2013, the government led by a nationalist leader Chief Minister Balochistan Dr Abdul Malik Baloch was established. And on December 7, 2013; local bodies elections were largely held in a peaceful manner in Balochistan. The successful elections have greatly negated the cause of terrorist groups, who always claim to enjoy the majority support. These elections also proved that majority of the Baloch are loyal to the federation, as they have rejected the case of separatists, being projected by India and other major countries.

And a Gallup survey of the UK official body, DFID, conducted on July 20, 2012 had disclosed that the vast majority of the Baloch people oppose the idea of an independent Balochistan.

It is notable that CPEC is to be economic game changer in whole the region, which is badly hit by below average living conditions, while people of Balochistan would be the main beneficiaries of the CEPC project. Two decades down the timeline, Gwadar would be a thriving metropolitan providing economic opportunities to the youth of Balochistan.

But, RAW University New Delhi is continuously conducting research and destabilizing the region through its political and terrorist assets located in UK, Sweden, Karachi, Balochistan and Afghanistan.

It is mentionable that with the inception of new political governments both at the center and the province, a meaningful negotiation with all the armed separatist groups have been initiated by a high level reconciliation and negotiation committee, comprising seasoned Baloch, Pashtoon  and Sindhi leaders to initiate dialogue with Baloch separatists.

Open offers to negotiate issues have been made to armed Baloch groups who have owned the responsibility to kill many innocent persons. On the instruction of New Delhi and some foreign anti-Pakistan entities, these groups continue to deny such offers on various reasons.

In this connection, as part of propaganda, all these anti-Pakistan entities are linking Balochistan with dismemberment of East Pakistan and Kashmir struggle which is nothing, but a deliberate effort to twist the facts. The Kashmir liberation movement is a rightful struggle and is the UN stature—unresolved agenda item. Likewise, the separation of East Pakistan was not based purely on indigenous movement or the policies of West Pakistan; it was in fact India who exploited the situation by promoting militancy in East Pakistan, and then militarily occupied it to install government of their choice. The involvement of RAW in Balochistan is the continuation of the same Indian policy to cause maximum damage to Pakistan.

As matter of fact, during its operations, natural calamities and humanitarian services, Pak Army never discriminated between Punjabis and non-Punjabis. It was due to uncontrolled violent events in Sindh, Balochistan and FATA that Army was compelled to conduct military operations, but with the public support of every segment of society including provincial and local people of those areas.

Nonetheless, our media entities must indicate that terrorists, operating in Balochistan are against Pakistan and pursuing the agenda of the vested interests of their foreign masters, especially pointing out Indian support to Baloch separatists.

Sajjad Shaukat writes on international affairs and is author of the book: US vs Islamic Militants, Invisible Balance of Power: Dangerous Shift in International Relations

Email: sajjad_logic@yahoo.com