Tuesday, 6 December 2016

Russia sides with Pakistan in the Heart of Asia Conference in India



Russia says it was wrong to criticize Pakistan in the Heart of Asia Conference.
Addressing the Heart of Asia conference in Amritsar today, Russian envoy Zamir Kabulov said that Sartaj Aziz’s speech at the conference was friendly and constructive.
The Russian envoy said that Afghanistan is pivot of Heart of Asia conference and the agenda of the conference has not been hijacked.
He said being friends and supporters we should avoid the blame game and work together.
Prime Minister’s Adviser on Foreign affairs Sartaj Aziz says peaceful resolution of all longstanding issues is the only way forward for boosting regional cooperation and connectivity.
Addressing Heart of Asia Conference in Amritsar on Sunday, he stressed the need for evolving a joint and purposeful strategy for lasting peace in Afghanistan.
The Adviser said Pakistan is ready to extend every kind of cooperation for stability and development in Afghanistan. He said Afghanistan should avoid levelling false and baseless accusations on Pakistan.
He said Pakistan had laid down the foundations of Heart of Asia Conference with the collaboration of Turkey six years ago.
Addressing the Conference, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani called for joint efforts to fight terrorism in the region.
He said they are focusing on durable peace and stability in Afghanistan.
He thanked world leaders for paying attention to the Afghan issue.
Ashraf Ghani welcomed Pakistan’s assistance of worth five hundred million dollars for the reconstruction of Afghanistan.
In his address, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said peace in Afghanistan is imperative for peace and stability in the region.
He said the entire region is facing the challenge of terrorism which needs to be overcome by joint efforts.
The conference is being attended by forty Foreign Ministers and dignitaries of fourteen countries.
Earlier, talking to Indian media in Amritsar, Sartaj Aziz said Pakistan wants peace and is ready for talks with India if New Delhi desires so.
Sartaj Aziz said terrorism is one of the issues to be discussed under composite dialogue with India.
He said Pakistan is desirous of peace which requires dialogue. He said any issues can be discussed across the table than through the media. If we do not have structured dialogue, then the dialogue through media increases hostility and negative perceptions.
Adviser to the Prime Minister said Pakistan is committed to peace and security of the region and to promote multilateral peace for this purpose.
Sartaj Aziz also held a meeting with Indian Security Adviser Ajit Doval in Amritsar.
During the meeting, matters pertaining to bilateral interest came under discussion.
Meanwhile, Sartaj Aziz held a meeting with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani on the sidelines of Heart of Asia Conference in Amritsar.
Matters pertaining to durable peace and stability in Afghanistan were discussed during the meeting.
Prime Minister’s Adviser on Foreign Affairs Sartaj Aziz also held a meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister, on the side lines of Heart of Asia Conference in Amritsar on Sunday.
They exchanged views on matters of bilateral and regional interest.


Modi-Ghani Nexus Spoils Heart of Asia


By: Itrat Naqvi, 

As usual, Modi once again spoiled an international event aimed at strengthening regional peace and security by resorting to Pakistan bashing. Despite being a seasoned politician he remained unable to hide his hatred and venomous views against Pakistan. At “Heart of Asia” conference he even betrayed Afghan President Ashraf Ghani to resort to Pakistan bashing. Ashraf Ghani opened the conference by snubbing a $500 million pledge from Pakistan for development projects in Afghanistan, saying "We need to identify cross-border terrorism and a fund to combat terrorism. Pakistan has pledged $500m for Afghanistan's development. This amount can be spent to contain extremism. Afghanistan suffered the highest number of casualties last year. This is unacceptable... Some still provide sanctuary for terrorists. As a Taliban figure said recently, if they had no sanctuary in Pakistan, they wouldn't last a month."
Pakistan had laid down the foundations of Heart of Asia Conference with the collaboration of Turkey six years ago. The Heart of Asia was established to provide a platform to discuss regional issues, particularly encouraging security, political, and economic cooperation among Afghanistan and its neighbors. This region-led dialogue was launched in November 2011 to expand practical coordination between Afghanistan and its neighbors and regional partners in facing common threats. The United States and over 20 other nations and organizations serve as “supporting nations” to the process. 6th Ministerial Conference of Heart of Asia summit was held in AmritsarIndia, from December 3 to December 4, 2016. The meeting was inaugurated by president of Afghanistan, Ashraf Ghani and Prime Minister of India, Narendra Modi,
Russia supported Pakistan viewpoint at the said conference. Addressing the Heart of Asia conference in Amritsar Russian envoy Zamir Kabulov said that Sartaj Aziz’s speech at the conference was friendly and constructive. Despite provocations by Modi and Ghani, Prime Minister’s Adviser on Foreign affairs Sartaj Aziz said peaceful resolution of all longstanding issues is the only way forward for boosting regional cooperation and connectivity. The Adviser said Pakistan is ready to extend every kind of cooperation for stability and development in Afghanistan. He said Afghanistan should avoid leveling false and baseless accusations on Pakistan.
Ghani has started to tow the line of his predecessor Karzai. He also fell prey to Indian hostile propaganda against Pakistan. Under the guise of friendship India is providing arms and financial assistance to Taliban and splinter groups in Afghanistan. It is also supporting Afghan Taliban in Pakistan. By doing so it is achieving its objective of undermining Pakistan's regional role and spoiling Pak-Afghanistan relations. Terrorism is a common threat to Afghanistan and Pakistan. India is abetting regional terrorist groups in Afghanistan and Pakistan to spoil regional peace and stability which is main agenda of Heart of Asia conference. Ashraf Ghani must revise his Pakistan policy which is being dictated to him by Modi, a staunch enemy of Pakistan. At the end of the day, it is Afghanistan and Pakistan cooperation that can eradicate the menace of terrorism from the region by ousting spoiler – Modi led India – from the overall peace process and reconciliation. Because spoilers will continue spoiling the peace as he did at the recent conference.

The article was originally published in National Herald Tribune.


Traitors of Pakistan Get Together in London

By Sajjad Shaukat

Because of the ideal strategic location of its province Balochistan and being the lonely nuclear country in the Islamic World, Pakistan has become special target of the foreign entities like US, India, Israel and some western countries whose secret agencies have been destabilizing it through various kinds of terror attacks, as witnessed in the recent years. These hostile elements are also using propaganda in maligning Pakistan.

In this regard, in a recent report, Asian Human Rights Commission (AHRC) blamed that the government, military and Law Enforcement Agencies (LEAs) of Pakistan are involved in elimination of Baloch people by adopting tactics of disappearances and extra-judicial killings under the canopy of National Action Plan (NAP).  AHRC allegedly pointed out that the government and military are involved in creating and supporting Islamist extremist groups to manage domestic political challenges in Balochistan.

Report further elaborated that China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has again provoked the government to commence a new phase of military operation in Balochistan to curb the popular demands for autonomy and equal rights in comparison with other provinces.

While, there is no confirmation and authenticity of any involvement of Armed Forces/LEAs/ Agencies in the said report. But, to make their donors happy (who are mostly from European Countries, USA, India and Israel) are highly opposed to CPEC project. In fact, AHRC is spreading disinformation to achieve the grand designs of these countries by creating hurdles in the way of CPEC.

For the purpose of propaganda campaign against Pakistan’s security forces, these external elements have also hired the services of those Pakistanis who are vulnerable and can work against the national interest of their own country.  

According to online sources, on 28-30 October 2016, these traitors get together and a conference titled “Future of Pakistan” was organized in London under aegis of South Asians against Terrorism & for Human Rights (SAATH). The moot was termed by segment of social media as “Pakistani Left Gathers in London to Set Things Right”. SAATH can be reached at www.saathforum.org; however this website has not updated any features as yet.

SAATH is a recently raised forum and the conference which was co-hosted by a US-based activist Dr Mohammad Taqi and Pakistan’s former ambassador Hussain Haqqani. Other prominent participants included ANP leaders Bushra Gohar, Afrasiab Khattak, MQM London leader Wasay Jalil, ex-diplomats-Wajid Shamsul Hassan, Hussain Haqqani, columnists and academicians-Rashed Rehman, Dr Ayesha Siddiqa, Marvi Sermad, Gul Bukhari, Dr Taimur Rahman of Laal and Mazdoor Kisan Party, activists and anchors-Anis Harooni, Asma Sherazi, Meena Sarwar, Shah Jahan Baloch (represent Baloch HR group), Saleem Javed (Sweden based HR activist from Hazara Community), Senge Hasnan Sering (USA based Giglit-Baltistan activist), Sufi Leghari, Dr Haroon Ahmad, Prof Aqil Shah, author Dr Farhat Taj, journalists Murtaza Solangi, Umber Khairi, Babar Ayaz and many others.

All major Indian papers and channels and major Pakistani newspapers gave wide coverage to the moot.  The speeches of selected participants are also available on YouTube.

They gathered in the cozy London, away from the gaze of the feared establishment, to vent their views under the patronage of Hussain Haqqani. The aim of SAATH forum was to put their heads together to find an alternative narrative to get rid of the Albatross hanging in Pakistan’s neck, the establishment. Hussain Haqqani commenced in a lighter tone with jokes and giggles and laughter to purify Pakistani well from the stink created by the dead dog and everyone laughed and clapped acknowledging the hint, who this dead dog was being referred to.

Some important remarks by participants from videos released on YouTube are as under:-

Murtaza Solangi said, “We know who the elephant in the room is; smaller provinces are forcefully bound in Pakistan, it’s a prison and Pakistan is heading into a direction which will make it worse than Yugoslavia. The forum should develop a monitoring mechanism for implementation of its aims and objectives.”

Farheen Rizvi (MQM activist and blogger) stated, “The Rangers break in our homes in Karachi and abuse our people in Punjab…they beat our youth and ridicule our being Mohajirs. We need to augment our intellectual resources, why cannot all of us here write at least one article or blog to raise the issue of suppression of Mohajir community.”

Sufi Laghari allegedly said, “Although we the Sindhis and Balochis have coexisted in Pakistan till today, our remaining in one Pakistan has become very difficult, we need Azadi (Freedom).

Dr Anis Harooni as pointed out by Rashed Rehman said, “There is a Karkhana in Pakistan which labels people as traitors, I don’t need a certificate for my loyalty, we are told to talk to establishment, how we can trust them when they bulldoze their narrative on our heads. Out of 25 million Pakistani children out of schools almost 2.5 lacs land up in Madrissas, how can we bring change?”

Bushra Gauhar (ANP) opined, “We are all defensive, Balochistan is burning, FATA has been raised to ground, Pakistan in self destructive mode and our neighbours are angry, part time activism should stop now and we need to continuously work to change the narrative in Pakistan.”

Dr Ayesha Siddiqa remarked, “We all know who the dog in the well is; however we are all part of the problem and need to peruse the goals of the conference with consistency and vigor.”

Tahir Gora of TAG TV Canada Interviewed Altaf Hussain, as Tahir Gora and selected members of SAATH forum called on Altaf Hussain for an interview which was arranged to show Altaf Hussain in good spirit. However; Altaf Hussain showed a sublime and accommodative posture; he highlighted the rights of Mohajir community. Tahir Gora runs an exclusive programme on TAG TV including people like Tariq Fateh etc.
The timing of holding this forum was interesting, Pakistani Line of Control (LoC) is under direct assault from the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi Modi’s boys, terrorists—stepping up in Balochistan and Karachi—Cyril gate and specter of Pakistan’s diplomatic isolation and Doval-Modi circus going in full swing to isolate Pakistan and build up the bogey of Giglit-Baltistan and Balochistan to deflect the attention away from the year of Pellet Guns and Dead Eyes in Kashmir.

Nevertheless, SAATH forum has been able to get maximum attention in Indian press and electronic media. Recent weeks also saw resonating articles in Pakistani press, where criticism of military operation Zarb-e-Azb and need for an alternative discourse and narrative was highlighted. It is expected that the charade of assault on Pakistan Army and its primary intelligence agency ISI would not only grow in coming days, but also become more sophisticated and intense.

Nonetheless, at the end of the moot, journalist Rashed Rehman read out “London Declaration for Pakistani Pluralism” which had following points:-

It is sad and disconcerting that instead of dealing real issues with the help of fresh ideas espoused by broad-minded Pakistanis, the Pakistani state tends to appease or nurture religious extremists, propagates religious extremism and allows it free spread in society, and persistently misinforms the people of Pakistan about the realities of our country.

The Pakistani state, regrettably, expresses a continued willingness to engage with religious extremists and terrorists, and sometimes even talks of formally inducting Jihadi terrorist groups into the state’s paramilitary structure but remains hostile to liberal, progressive and nationalist groupings within Pakistan. Political parties representing Baloch, Muhajir, Sindhi, and Pashtun segments of Pakistan’s population have been targeted by both state repression and hostile propaganda aimed at de-legitimizing them even when they have won clear electoral mandates form the people.

Participants of today’s conference are a diverse array of people, united by the desire for a pluralist and tolerant Pakistan that abides by internationally recognized human rights, allow full and free debate, treats all its people and nationalities fairly and is no longer seen around the world as an incubator for terrorism.

While, talking to Hindustan Times, Hussain Haqqani stated “If Pakistan wants to avoid big pressure from the rest of the world; it has to change from within. The current narrative of the establishment is untenable.”

As matter of fact, the main aims of these traitors were to share the malicious propaganda of the anti-Pakistan elements by marginalization of the Baloch and other minorities by “Punjabi majoritarianism”, showing crises of identity.

In this respect, Shahjahan Baloch who strongly opposed the $46 billion CPEC by saying that the project had adversely affected Balochistan and recalled the killing of dozens of lawyers and police cadets in the province in the recent past, elaborated, “It is wrong to say there is democracy in Balochistan. We don’t want the development brought by CPEC. I have lost so many friends. Who will want the fruits of such development that comes with so many killings? We only want the right to life”.

And recounting the military’s pervasive role in public life, speakers of the conference stated that the army was not involved in image and narrative management, with major investment in films, radio and theatre to “capture the mind before it gets ideas…to strengthen democracy, the military needs to be put on the back foot, news media in Pakistan was not being allowed to convey ground realities to the people.”

They emphasized the need for a dialogue for unity among various ethnic groups. The conference also concluded that Pakistan faces the risk of global isolation because of widespread obscurantism, growing intolerance, lack of rule of law, along with official support for extremism and general disregard for human rights.

It is surprising to note that while pursuing foreign agenda against Pakistan, the participants of the conference ignored ground realities and facts. They neglected the statement of Indian spy Kulbushan Yadav who admitted that he was assigned with the task to create unrest in Karachi and Balolchitan by stating, “I supported the individuals who worked to destabilize Pakistan…I promoted the criminal mindset that was there in Balochistan.” Another task assigned to him was to target the Gwadar Port. Yadav also confessed—funding Baloch separatists along with other terrorists. During investigation, RAW agent Yadav admitted that during his stay, he contacted various Baloch separatist leaders and insurgents, including Dr Allah Nazar Baloch, to execute the task to damage the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor project.

In the recent past, Indian former Army Chief Gen. VK Singh openly confessed that during his tenure, he supervised special army unit, Tactical Support Division (TSD) on the instructions of the then defence minister to sponsor subversive acts in Pakistan, especially in Balochistan.

The participants of the conference must know that these blatant admissions by New Delhi endorsed that with the assistance of CIA and Israeli Mossad, RAW has well-established its network in Afghanistan. These secret agencies have been fully backing cross-border incursions and terror-activities in Balochistan, Karachi and other regions of Pakistan, while providing the anti-Pakistan elements to manipulate the situation. With the tactical assistance of America and some western countries, India has continuously been assisting the Baloch separatist elements and anti-Pakistan groups like BLA, Jundullah and TTP including their affiliated outfits with logistic support—the militants kidnapped and killed many innocent people and the security personnel in the province through suicide attacks, bomb blasts, targeted killings and sectarian violence. They also abducted and killed many Chinese and Iranian nationals. Therefore, they are responsible for dumped bodies and extrajudicial killings and the missing persons in the province. On a number of occasions, these insurgent groups claimed responsibility for their acts of sabotage, but India and some external powers have been shifting the blame game of human rights violations in Balochistan and other areas of the country towards Pak Army.

In this context, these traitors’ purpose is to create resentment among the Baloch, Sindhis, people of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan against Punjab and Army.
Whereas Army has not only been successful in uprooting the anti-state elements, but also contributed a lot in socio-economic development of Balochistan. It is mentionable that besides protecting mega projects, and promoting other developments works, Pak Army set up a number of institutes in Balochistan, which have been providing especially technical training to thousands of Balochis. Pak Army has also been imparting military training to the Baloch youth. The purpose is to bring them in the mainstream of the country.

As a result of the general elections 2013, the government led by a nationalist leader Chief Minister Balochistan Dr Abdul Malik Baloch was established. And on December 7, 2013; local bodies elections were largely held in a peaceful manner in Balochistan. The successful elections have greatly negated the cause of terrorist groups, who always claim to enjoy the majority support. These elections also proved that majority of the Baloch are loyal to the federation, as they have rejected the case of separatists, being projected by India.

The speakers of the conference should also take cognizance of the fact that since the government of the Balochistan province announced general pardon and protection to the Baloch militants as part of reconciliation process, many insurgents and their leaders have surrendered their arms and decided to work for the development of Pakistan and the province, peace has been restored in the Balochistan. But, recent terror attacks in Balochistan show that the US-led India and Israel have again started acts of sabotage in the province.

Besides, the Rangers and the police have also restored peace in Karachi. Notably, since the anti-Pakistan foreign connections of the former chief of MQM Altaf Hussain have been exposed, a division has been created in the ranks and files of MQM, resulting into London-based MQM and Karachi-based MQM.

The participants of the forum in London remained silent over the gross human rights violations in India and the Indian Occupied Kashmir—promotion of Hindu extremism in India, the plight of religious minorities. While following the foreign agenda against Islamabad, they did not pay attention to the developments like persecution of minorities, forced conversions of other religious minorities into Hindus, ban on beef and cow slaughter, inclusion of Hindu religious books in curriculum etc., and creation of war-like situation with Pakistan, which have continued since the leader of the ruling party BJP Narendra Modi became Prime Minister of India. Hindu extremist outfits such as BJP, RSS VHP, Bajrang Dal and Shiv Sena including other similar parties have been promoting religious and ethnic chauvinism in India by propagating ideology of Hindutva (Hindu nationalism). The extremist Hindus have particularly accelerated assaults on Muslims and Christians, including their places of worship. In this respect, even western media have highlighted the plight of minorities in India. But, traitors of Pakistan who get together in London totally neglected these realities.







Indian Frail Nuclear Safety and Security Fostering Nuclear Accidents


Sarah Khan
India remains one of the worst countries in terms of nuclear safety and security at its nuclear installations due to non-adherence to International Atomic Energy Agency’s set guidelines for safe and secure operation of nuclear facilities. There have been numerous accidents at various facilities in India. The latest accident occurred at Kakrapar Atomic Power Station in Indian state of Gujarat in March 2016. On-site emergency was declared in Kakrapar late evening on March 11 although the accident happened in the morning. Irony of the matter is, India seldom provides any details on nuclear accidents occurring in its territory. Due to non-availability of required mechanism for radiation protection, the poor and ignorant Indians remain exposed to nuclear radiations.
The incident at  Kalpakkam Reprocessing Plant (KARP) on 21 January 2003, which led to the indefinite shutting down of the plant, raised serious questions over the safety of the production of potential weapons-grade plutonium at KARP, and also the safety of workers and human habitations around Kalpakkam. Concerned members of the scientific community feel that if safety issues aren't quickly addressed and made transparent, Kalpakkam may be a mini-Chernobyl in the making. Previous two major incidents at the KARP facility, in which workers were overexposed to radiation, in December 2002 and May 2001, both in the Plutonium Reconversion Area, and how higher officials had always cited emergency as a reason for the Health Physics Department not following safety procedures. Finally, it warned that "if the plant continues to be operated in the same fashion, it will be clear invitation of more serious accidents like criticality which is the only accident yet to happen in KARP." Only after a month in January 2003, the accident again occurred at KARP which was ample proof for non-serious attitude of India towards nuclear safety and security.
Below is a list of leaks, fires and structural damages that have occurred in India’s civilian nuclear power sector.  
April 2011 Fire alarms blare in the control room of the Kaiga Generating Station in Karnataka.  Comments by officials alternately say there was no fire, that there was only smoke and no fire, and that the fire was not in a sensitive area.  Details from the AERB are awaited.

November 2009 Fifty-five employees consume radioactive material after tritiated water finds its way into the drinking water cooler in Kaiga Generating Station. The NPCIL attributes the incident to “an insider’s mischief”.
April 2003 Six tonnes leak of heavy water at reactor II of the Narora Atomic  Power Station (NAPS) in Uttar Pradesh, indicating safety measures have not been improved from the leak at the same reactor three years previously.
January 2003 Failure of a valve in the Kalpakkam Atomic Reprocessing Plant in Tamil Nadu results in the release of high-level waste, exposing six workers to high doses of radiation. The leaking area of the plant had no radiation monitors or mechanisms to detect valve failure, which may have prevented the employees’ exposure. A safety committee had previously recommended that the plant be shut down.  The management blames the “over enthusiasm” of the workers.

May 2002 Tritiated water leaks from a downgraded heavy water storage tank at the tank farm of Rajasthan Atomic Power Station (RAPS) 1&2 into a common dyke area.  An estimated 22.2 Curies of radioactivity is released into the environment.
November 2001 A leak of 1.4 tonnes of heavy water at the NAPS I reactor, resulting in one worker receiving an internal radiation dose of 18.49 mSv .
April 2000 Leak of about seven tonnes of heavy water from the moderator system at NAPS Unit II. Various workers involved in the clean-up received ‘significant uptakes of tritium’, although only one had a radiation dose over the recommended annual limit.
March 1999 Somewhere between four and fourteen tonnes of heavy water leaks from the pipes at Madras Atomic Power Station (MAPS) at Kalpakkam, Tamil Nadu, during a test process. The pipes have a history of cracks and vibration problems . Forty-two people are reportedly involved in mopping up the radioactive liquid.
May 1994 The inner surface of the containment dome of Unit I of Kaiga Generating Station collapses (delaminates) while the plant is under construction. Approximately 130 tonnes of concrete fall from a height of nearly thirty metres, injuring fourteen workers. The dome had already been completed, forming the part of the reactor designed to prevent escape of radioactive material into the environment in the case of an accident.  Fortunately, the core had not then been loaded.
February 1994 Helium gas and heavy water leak in Unit 1 of RAPS.  The plant is shut down until March 1997.
March 1993 Two blades of the turbine in NAPS Unit I break off, slicing through other blades and indirectly causing a raging fire, which catches onto leaked oil and spreads through the turbine building.  The smoke sensors fail to detect the fire, which is only noticed once workers see the flames.  It causes a blackout in the plant, including the shutdown of the secondary cooling systems, and power is not restored for seventeen hours.  In the meantime, operators have to manually activate the primary shutdown system.  They also climb onto the roof to open valves to slow the reactions in the core by hand (16).  The incident was rated as a Level 3 on the International Nuclear Event Scale, INES.
May 1992 Tube leak causes a radioactive release of 12 Curies of radioactivity from Tarapur Atomic Power Station.
January 1992 Four tons of heavy water spilt at RAPS.
December 1991 A leak from pipelines in the vicinity of CIRUS and Dhruva research reactors at the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) in Trombay, Maharashtra, results in severe Cs-137 soil contamination of thousands of times the acceptable limit. Local vegetation was also found to be contaminated, though contract workers digging to the leaking pipeline were reportedly not tested for radiation exposure, despite the evidence of their high dose.

July 1991 A contracted labourer mistakenly paints the walls of RAPS with heavy water before applying a coat of whitewash. He also washed his paintbrush, face and hands in the deuterated and tritiated water, and has not been traced since.
March 1991 Heavy water leak at MAPS takes four days to clean up.
Despite IAEA’s Convention on Radiological Emergency in Case of Nuclear Accidents which calls for immediate reporting of nuclear accident to IAEA and close neighbors of the country in which accident took place, the Department of Atomic Energy adheres to secrecy even about nuclear accidents. The above quoted are few of the reported accidents, there may be many other accidents that we do not know about. US and many other major powers signing nuclear agreements with India must first ensure that India must adhere to Additional Protocol and follow IAEA’s standards of nuclear safety and security for safe operation of nuclear plants. In the absence of any such adherences the poor ignorant Indians will remain exposed to radiations as a result of unreported nuclear accidents. Moreover, it will pose serious risk of radiological dispersal to neighboring states as well.




Book Review “Indian Unsafeguarded Nuclear Program: An Assessment”



By: Sarah Khan

A study titled ‘Indian Unsafeguarded Nuclear Program’, published by the Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad (ISSI) and co-authored by four nuclear scholars, Adeela Azam, Ahmad Khan, Muhammad Ali and Sameer Khan unveils a new and comprehensive assessment of the Indian nuclear weapon capacity. The study was launched at the ISSI, which was attended by foreign diplomats, scholars, journalists and students.

The book is comprised of four chapters. The first chapter gives detailed account of India’s domestically sufficient uranium available to meet its long term needs. Introduction of new technologies for uranium exploration and installation of new milling facilities will further enhance country’s ability to efficiently mine locally available uranium. Optimal utilization of domestic uranium reserves will allow India to keep its existing and few upcoming reactors operational for more than a century. In second chapter the writer has stated that India’s unsafeguarded uranium enrichment capacity will grow significantly by 2017. The Highly Enriched Uranium produced at Rattehali plant will be in excess to the projected requirement of fuelling the entire fleet of Indian nuclear powered submarine. The growth rate of the Indian enrichment capacity indicates that India has the fastest growing unsafeguarded uranium enrichment program in the developing world has surpassed Pakistan. The book reveals that India already has sufficient material and technical capacity to make 356 to 492 nuclear bombs.

Chapter three explores the historical role of key individuals, major powers and technology as the main internal and external drivers which helped India develop its unsafeguarded nuclear reactor program. The research also explains how and what has driven the unsafeguarded Indian nuclear reactor program while also offering a new, original and comprehensive assessment of the Indian nuclear bomb making capacity. Fourth chapter has evaluated the Indian reprocessing program. The military aspect of Indian reprocessing program is often ignored. Despite the fact that several states continue to reprocess spent nuclear fuel for civilian purposes not only its economic feasibility is questionable but its ability to significantly reduce environmental hazards is also uncertain. Almost all Indian reprocessing facilities remain outside the IAEA safeguards and are ostensibly a potential source of vertical proliferation and military use. This work is in contrast to several earlier studies which took a much modest view of the Indian nuclear bomb making potential.

The book gives a fresh perspective on India’s unsafeguarded nuclear and makes a significant addition to the existing knowledge about the size, history and capacity of the Indian unsafeguarded nuclear program. This book has used government documents, speeches, and parliamentary debates, research of leading Indian and international nuclear experts and international assessments related to the Indian nuclear program, dating back to the several past decades.

The book recommended that the member States of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) should consider the large and swiftly expanding Indian nuclear bomb making capacity while dealing with New Delhi’s NSG membership case and ensure that the Indian membership of this export control arrangement does not, in any way, help India further expand and accelerate its nuclear weapons program.

The study provides deep insight into the true history, size, extent and capabilities of the different aspects of the complex Indian nuclear program, which New Delhi has kept outside the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) safeguards. It includes compelling evidence that India has the largest and oldest unsafeguarded nuclear program in the entire developing world and amongst States not party to the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT).



Thursday, 1 December 2016

Change of command: Civil-military ties

Dr Zafar Nawaz Jaspal
THE appointment of the Chief of Army Staff is always very sensitive due to the decisive role of the Army in the polity of Pakistan. The trends in the prevalent internal and external environment of the country also make the appointment of the current Chief of Army Staff (COAS) critical. So, the announcement of the promotion of General Qamar Javed Bajwa on November 26, 2016, as a four star-General and COAS has commenced thought-provoking debate on the civil-military relations in the country. The cautious conclusion is that General Bajwa would prefer the status quo and refrain from political adventurism.
Conversely, the domestic dynamics, especially the serious rift among the political parties and amateurish political culture of the state, are too unpredictable and may oblige COAS to contravene his mandate. The probability of the latter necessitates the critical analysis of the change of guards in Army and civil-military relations in Pakistan. The honourable retirement of General Raheel Sharif and appointment of a new COAS not only quashed the tradition of extension, but also accentuates that individuals are not indispensable. Moreover, Pakistan Army as a professional organization is immensely capable to breed able commanders or generals.
The appointment of new COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa and General Zubair Hayat Chairman as Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (CJCSC) also manifested that it is prerogative of the elected Prime Minister to decide who is capable to lead the armed forces. Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif amply exercised his constitutional power of the nomination of the COAS (4th in order of seniority) and CJCSC and President Mamoon Hussain endorsed the former’s recommendation. Nevertheless, still a few tricky cum challenging issues have potential to spoil the smooth functioning of the civil-military relations. The developments in the realm of domestic politics, counter-terrorism and upsurge on the eastern and western borders could encourage antidemocratic forces to pursue their agenda.
The COAS General Bajwa, certainly, endeavours for the logical conclusion of the ongoing Zarb-i-Azb. In this context, the biggest challenge for him would be refurbishing of the counter-terrorism strategy’s tactics. Without revamping the tactics, the counter-terrorism strategy would be victim of stagnation. Perhaps, inertia would complicate the pursuit of the objectives in the prevalent asymmetrical warfare in the country and also frustrate the man on the horseback. Therefore, he needs to act intelligently and swiftly. The recent three terrorist attacks in Balochistan necessitate the broadening of counter-terrorism operations including serious actions in certain parts of Punjab. Whether he would be able to persuade the ruling PML-N for such actions or simply follow the policy of his predecessor, i.e. chasing and killing the terrorist in entire country except Punjab.
The most important undertaking for the new COAS is to avoid military interference in the politics. Ironically, today, parliamentarians are debating the national issues on the private TV channels instead of at the floor of the National Assembly and Senate. One leading political party has boycotted the parliament for indefinite period and seems convinced to win 2018 general elections by maintaining political jingoism and protests on the streets. Political history of Pakistan reveals that such political tactics not only obstruct the smooth functioning of the political system but also make it vulnerable to the extra-constitutional upheavals.
Importantly, today, the Army seems amenable to judicial dictates, sensitive to media trials, and also reiterating that it supports democratic political system, legal and constitutional legitimacy of an elected government and also espouse for the PML-N government to complete its term in office. Simultaneously, the prevalent trends in the Pakistani polity manifest that the Army still plays an affective umpire, final arbiter or broker’s role in the civilian domain and is also determined to hold on its public vision as the ultimate custodian of Pakistan’s integrity.
The political elite in Pakistan are divided and engaged in free for all struggle for power. The integrity of the elected ruling elite is at the mercy of the apex court decision on the Panamagate cases. The political parties are a mirror image of dynasties. The steady degeneration of the civilian institutions and civilian law enforcement agencies have created space for Army’s role in restoring the writ of the state in Karachi, Federal Administrative Tribal Areas, Balochistan. Even in Islamabad, Rangers accompany the police mobiles during the patrolling.
Thus, the Army’s position of pre-eminence in the national polity would continue under the stewardship General Bajwa. To conclude, the national interest of the country pleas that the new COAS General Bajwa should not permit the derailing of the Zarb-i-Azb gains and focus on the rehabilitation of the affecters of the operation; assist civilian ruling elite in restoring and maintaining the writ of the state internally within the ambit of the constitutional framework; and above all forcefully thwart the military challenges at the eastern and western borders of Pakistan.
— The writer is Associate Professor, School of Politics and International Relations, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad.


Pakistan, India and politics of NSG

Maimuna Ashraf
THE last Vienna Plenary meeting of NSG ended without reaching any consensus on the issue of NSG candidature for non-NPT states. India was lately giving the impression that it has won the support of majority of the states including Mexico, Switzerland, Brazil, Russia and New Zealand. But the fact is that New Zealand doesn’t stand a chance against the US pressure. Similarly the countries in Latin American have different interests.
However three major countries Ireland, China and Austria have not shown any change in their stance against the Indian membership. However, India wants to send the message out that NSG issue is still alive and India is diligently working for its membership. It’s almost a decade that membership of NSG has become much contested, especially because of India and Pakistan interest into NSG.
Most of the countries were given the impression by the US and India that Pakistan has been brought in by China as a reaction to Indian membership application to spoil the Indian case. Contrary to this, Pakistan had its Export Control Act in 2004. Since then it has been updating its NSG list. Islamabad announced its NSG compliance list in 2005 followed by two subsequent reviews in 2007 and 2012 that ensures the working on this issue long before India had applied for NSG membership.
Hence when India applied, Pakistan had already done its homework and was ready to apply which it did instantly. Also it wouldn’t have been possible for Pakistan to apply within 6 days of Indian application. Pakistani side gave a detailed dossier spanning over 300 pages within 6 days which shows that preparations were already there. So Pakistan has to tackle this impression as well. The right time to insist on a stringent criterion for non-NPT states was in 2008. At that time NSG countries missed an opportunity where they could have asked both Pakistan and India to simultaneously adhere to strong non-proliferation commitment. This could have injected nuclear restraints in South Asia. But now India has access to all kinds of nuclear technology and has the capability to live without the membership of NSG. For India it is a matter of prestige. For now, it will not be easy for India to meet any new criteria as it can live without it. Earlier this year, Pakistan’s foreign affairs advisor indicated that Pakistan is willing to enter into a bilateral non-testing agreement with India.
Back in 1998 as well, Pakistan proposed simultaneous adherence to CTBT by both Pakistan and India. Later India refused by making it clear that it is not going to join CTBT. Now Pakistan has found a middle ground i.e. the bilateral agreement which is still better than unilateral moratoriums because unilateral moratoriums are voluntary however India is not willing for such a bilateral agreement as well because it does not comply with its interest.
India is of the view that NSG membership is very significant for their prestige and for this purpose India went openly for an alliance with US. Even after the meeting scheduled on 11-12 November 2016, the trends are not in favor of India. However Pakistan also needs to maintain its resilience in its policy regarding the issue of NSG membership. Viewing the increasing number of countries supporting universal criteria for non-NPT states, it can be accessed that Indian membership in NSG doesn’t seem forthcoming which is ultimately good for Pakistan. However, if Pakistan could not win the membership simultaneously with India, it should still not give up on its ambitions as it needs recognition in the long run. Pakistan can gradually and eventually get there by constant efforts but it should not rush and must keep the pace of responsible nuclear weapon state.
— The writer is member Strategic Vision Institute, a think-tank based in Islamabad.