Guns and ghee

TO MANY Indians, their country’s strategic position looks alarming. Its two biggest neighbours are China and Pakistan. It has fought wars with both, and border issues still fester. Both are nuclear-armed, and are allies with one another to boot. China, a rising superpower with five times India’s GDP, is quietly encroaching on India’s traditional sphere of influence, tying a “string of pearls” of alliances around the subcontinent. Relatively weak but safe behind its nuclear shield, Pakistan harbours Islamist guerrillas who have repeatedly struck Indian targets; regional security wonks have long feared that another such incident might spark a conflagration.

So when four heavily armed infiltrators attacked an Indian army base on September 18th, killing 18 soldiers before being shot dead themselves, jitters inevitably spread. The base nestles in mountains close to the “line of control”, as the border between the Indian and Pakistani-administered parts of the disputed territory of Kashmir is known. Indian officials reflexively blamed Pakistan; politicians and pundits vied in demanding a punchy response. “Every Pakistan post through which infiltration takes place should be reduced to rubble by artillery fire,” blustered a retired brigadier who now mans a think-tank in New Delhi, India’s capital.

Yet despite electoral promises to be tough on Pakistan, the Hindu-nationalist government of Narendra Modi has trodden as softly as its predecessors. On September 21st it summoned Pakistan’s envoy for a wrist-slap, citing evidence that the attackers had indeed slipped across the border, and noting that India has stopped 17 such incursions since the beginning of the year. Much to the chagrin of India’s armchair warriors, such polite reprimands are likely to be the limit of India’s response.

There are good reasons for this. India gains diplomatic stature by behaving more responsibly than Pakistan. It is keenly aware of the danger of nuclear escalation, and of the risks of brinkmanship to its economy. Indian intelligence agencies also understand that they face an unusual adversary in Pakistan: such is its political frailty that any Indian belligerence tends to strengthen exactly the elements in Pakistan’s power structure that are most inimical to India’s own interests.

But there is another, less obvious reason for reticence. India is not as strong militarily as the numbers might suggest. Puzzlingly, given how its international ambitions are growing along with its economy, and how alarming its strategic position looks, India has proved strangely unable to build serious military muscle.

India’s armed forces look good on paper. It fields the world’s second-biggest standing army, after China, with long fighting experience in a variety of terrains and situations (see chart). It has topped the list of global arms importers since 2010, sucking in a formidable array of top-of-the-line weaponry, including Russian warplanes, Israeli missiles, American transport aircraft and French submarines. State-owned Indian firms churn out some impressive gear, too, including fighter jets, cruise missiles and the 40,000-tonne aircraft-carrier under construction in a shipyard in Kochi, in the south of the country.

Yet there are serious chinks in India’s armour. Much of its weaponry is, in fact, outdated or ill maintained. “Our air defence is in a shocking state,” says Ajai Shukla, a commentator on military affairs. “What’s in place is mostly 1970s vintage, and it may take ten years to install the fancy new gear.” On paper, India’s air force is the world’s fourth largest, with around 2,000 aircraft in service. But an internal report seen in 2014 by IHS Jane’s, a defence publication, revealed that only 60% were typically fit to fly. A report earlier this year by a government accounting agency estimated that the “serviceability” of the 45 MiG 29K jets that are the pride of the Indian navy’s air arm ranged between 16% and 38%. They were intended to fly from the carrier currently under construction, which was ordered more than 15 years ago and was meant to have been launched in 2010. According to the government’s auditors the ship, after some 1,150 modifications, now looks unlikely to sail before 2023.

Such delays are far from unusual. India’s army, for instance, has been seeking a new standard assault rifle since 1982; torn between demands for local production and the temptation of fancy imports, and between doctrines calling for heavier firepower or more versatility, it has flip-flopped ever since. India’s air force has spent 16 years perusing fighter aircraft to replace ageing Soviet-era models. By demanding over-ambitious specifications, bargain prices, hard-to-meet local-content quotas and so on, it has left foreign manufacturers “banging heads against the wall”, in the words of one Indian military analyst. Four years ago France appeared to have clinched a deal to sell 126 of its Rafale fighters. The order has since been whittled to 36, but is at least about to be finalised.

India’s military is also scandal-prone. Corruption has been a problem in the past, and observers rightly wonder how guerrillas manage to penetrate heavily guarded bases repeatedly. Lately the Indian public has been treated to legal battles between generals over promotions, loud disputes over pay and orders for officers to lose weight. In July a military transport plane vanished into the Bay of Bengal with 29 people aboard; no trace of it has been found. In August an Australian newspaper leaked extensive technical details of India’s new French submarines.

The deeper problem with India’s military is structural. The three services are each reasonably competent, say security experts; the trouble is that they function as separate fiefdoms. “No service talks to the others, and the civilians in the Ministry of Defence don’t talk to them,” says Mr Shukla. Bizarrely, there are no military men inside the ministry at all. Like India’s other ministries, defence is run by rotating civil servants and political appointees more focused on ballot boxes than ballistics. “They seem to think a general practitioner can perform surgery,” says Abhijit Iyer-Mitra, who has worked as a consultant for the ministry. Despite their growing brawn, India’s armed forces still lack a brain.

Poverty eradication challenge: Modi might have to eat his own words

By Shahbaz Rana

ISLAMABAD: As he scaled down his war rhetoric on Saturday, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi dared Pakistan to eradicate poverty before his country. This challenge, however, would not be easy for him to win because World Bank data shows India will have to do a lot more than Pakistan in order to win the ‘war against poverty’.

At home, meanwhile, Modi’s challenge drew a sharp rebuke on Sunday from leaders of India’s own main opposition party. Congress leader Meem Afzal urged Modi to redirect his attention to India’s own challenges. “Modi ji, instead of giving suggestions to Pakistan, focus on what is happening in your own country,” he said. “No proper development is visible… you promised 100 million jobs in five years but you haven’t even created 50,000.”

Afzal has rightly advised Modi to put own house in order before throwing challenges to Pakistan. The World Bank databank and its report on ‘Addressing Inequality in South Asia’ suggest Pakistan fares far better than India in terms of people living below the poverty level, even though, overall human development indicators are worse in both countries compared to other developing nations.

While 8.3% of Pakistan’s population – some 14.1 million people – lives in poverty according to World Bank’s new $1.90 a day threshold, a staggering 21.3% in India – more than 260 million people – are destitute, showing Modi will have a harder time winning his own challenge.

The World Bank updated its traditional a dollar a day poverty line to $1.90 last year after changes in its purchasing power parity index, which was also updated from the 2005 level. The purchasing power parity index provides a fair idea of the extent of deprivation in countries, as all the countries apply different techniques to work out national poverty lines.

Against a stricter $3.10 a day poverty line – which World Bank also updated from the previous $2 a day criteria – 58% of India’s population or 708 million Indians live in poverty compared to 45% of Pakistan’s population or 76.5 million Pakistanis. The number of poor Indians according to this level is three-and-a-half times more than Pakistan’s total population.

 “India and Pakistan have to rise to the occasion and work together to bring out millions of people out of the net of poverty and hunger. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor can become a common platform for them,” said Dr Naeemul Zafar who till recently was working as member Social Sector for Pakistan’s Planning Commission.

Independent economists say that compared to Pakistan, India needs a much higher economic growth rate to take millions of people out of poverty. The other reason is that in India inequality was far higher than in Pakistan, which showed that the Indian growth model was not inclusive.

Education and health inequality in India is higher than in Pakistan, according to a World Bank report on addressing inequality in South Asia. Both the countries perform poorly on the Human Opportunity Index (HOI) and both have been dubbed as ‘low middle income nations’ by global financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.

The extent of inequality in access in these two countries has consistently remained the highest in the region and has only decreased slightly over time, said the World Bank.

The report showed how worse the region was on human development indicators. The report finds that despite not being the poorest region in the world, South Asia has some of the worst human development outcomes worldwide. The comparison is even more dramatic when focusing on the outcomes of the poorest quintile.

The share of children under five who are stunted among the poorest quintile is above 50% in Bangladesh and Nepal and reaches 60% in India. India and Pakistan also have some of the highest infant mortality rates and under-five child mortality rates among the poor across all comparators. Of 1,000 children born in Pakistan’s poorest population quintile, 94 will die within 12 months and 120 within five years.

Gaps in neonatal mortality (death within the first 28 days of life) and in under-five child mortality (death within the first five years of life) between the top and the bottom quintiles are large, especially in India and Pakistan, said the World Bank.

South Asian countries also spend less on education than other countries at a similar level of development. In particular, Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka all sit far below the international trend line between public spending on education and income level, according to the World Bank report.

India’s public spending per student on primary education puts it among the lowest quintile of all the regional countries, said the World Bank. Its public spending per student on secondary education is higher but still falls below the average of comparators.

The lender has advised that things need to change for South Asia to double its growth to 9%. Unless governments can raise more tax by broadening the base and spurring private sector development, South Asia will not end poverty and boost shared prosperity.

Despite being low middle-income countries, India and Pakistan heavily spend on their defense needs due to rivalry between them. An annual report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) revealed that India featured number six on the highest military spending list, up a rank from its position of the previous year. The SIPRI data puts Pakistan’s military expenditure in 2015 at $9.5 billion, higher than the previous year’s $8.7 billion. In comparison to that, India’s military spending in 2015 was $51.3 billion.

Before preaching to Pakistan, look into your backyard: Mayawati tells PM Narendra Modi

Written by RAMENDRA SINGH

ATTACKING PRIME Minister Narendra Modi over the Centre’s “failure” to prevent terrorist attacks, BSP chief Mayawati Sunday said that the PM’s advice to the Pakistani government to focus on the welfare of its citizens is a good thing, but he should look into his own backyard to see whether his record is such that he can preach.

“Is it so that one who is eating jaggery is suggesting others to avoid it?” Mayawati asked, reacting to the PM’s first remarks on the Uri terror attack at BJP’s national executive meet in Kozhikode on Saturday.

Addressing mediapersons, the BSP chief said that the advice was an attempt at “emotional blackmail”, and an attempt to divert people’s attention from Modi’s failures before the upcoming elections in UP and other states.

Mayawati said people are “enraged” over the killing of 18 soldiers in Uri, and expect “concrete assurances” and “effective action” from the government to prevent any recurrences. She, however, added that people are only getting “despondency” from the actions of the PM, who did not assure them that the borders would now be secure, and terrorists would not infiltrate.

Mayawati claimed the government appears to be “misleading people” instead of making a long-term policy with consensus and implementing it. “It is surprising that the talk of war against poverty, unemployment and illiteracy in Pakistan is being made to divert people’s attention from its (government’s) failures to stop the loss of lives and property in the terrorist attacks from across the border,” she said.

The BSP chief added that the Modi government’s record on poverty, inflation, illiteracy and unemployment has also been “very bad”, and that BJP had faced defeat in Delhi, Bihar, West Bengal, Kerala and Tamil Nadu because it did not fulfill promises made during the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

She claimed it is alarming that “this government will prove to be a failure like theCongress government” in securing the country’s borders and ensuring the well-being of soldiers, and that it will not be able to stop terrorist incidents along the borders.

Mayawati said Modi would suffer losses in the upcoming elections in various states because of his failures in public welfare and social security, so he has “cunningly tried to mislead people by linking India’s burning problems with Pakistan’s”. “It was not a big achievement but a political attempt to emotionally blackmail the people to affect the elections,” she added.

Targeting the ruling SP, Mayawati said people are suffering in “the internal rift and civil war of SP’s first family, caused by Mulayam Singh Yadav’s love for his son”. She added that law and order and developmental works are in a bad shape, while services in sectors such as health have come to a halt.

“The SP government seems to be playing fiddle like Nero while people are suffering from dengue and chikungunya… Governor Ram Naik and the Centre should direct the state government’s attention to its failures, so that people in distress can get some relief,” she said.

Who Dares, Wins

By Sohail Parwaz

It was a year back, when in October 2015, Former foreign minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri while talking to host Karan Thapar on India Today television,  had revealed that India planned to launch air strikes on Pakistani soil following the 2008 Mumbai attacks in order to target the banned militant group Lashkar-e-Tayiba (LeT) and Jamat ud Dawa (JuD). According to him, it was a tip given to him by Senator John McCain of United States (US) delegation expressed his concern that India may carry out surgical air strikes to target LeT and JuD in Punjab’s Muridke town. The delegation which visited him in Lahore comprised Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and US special envoy on Afghanistan and Pakistan Richard Holbrooke. The former foreign minister states that he told McCain that Pakistan Army would give a “measured” response in case of a strike inside its territory.

Mr. Kasuri expressed his apprehensions in 2015 whereas in the Chapter 19 of my fiction work “The Cornered Rogue” I feared about such stupidity by Indians about three years before Khurshid Kasuri could disclose it. Although the Indians couldn’t dare do any such insanity however this type of adventurism has always remained India’s utmost desire. Whatever happened in India the first three names the Psychos take are ISI, Hafiz Saeed or JuD and Azhar Masood or Jaish e Muhammad. There is a famous saying that, ‘Who dares wins’. The biggest problem is that although Indian have the dreams of carrying out such adventure, nevertheless, every time at the eleventh hour they lack courage and have to abandon their life time desire in the middle of sheer disappointment.

Like my previous two articles, I am again quoting few excerpts from the chapter nineteen of my book. The current circumstances will qualify my fears, although while thinking of any such attempt the Indians will have to be mentally ready to lose a lot in return. Please enjoy the quote:

“Jama’at-e-D’awut-e-Islami, one of the biggest philanthropist organisations of Pakistan had its main office at Muridke, a small town on GT Road, just few kilometers away from Lahore, the capital city of Punjab Province. The party did a great rescue job during the disastrous earthquake of 2005. So much so that the previous American President appreciated their missionary zeal and contribution to relief work, but surprisingly within just a few months the same President suddenly took an abrupt U turn and started criticising the same party allegedly for its militant role in Kashmir. It was the same party which was blamed for Mumbai carnage of 2008. A full fledged campaign was run by some unknown quarters to malign the party which was presented to the world as a demonic outfit, though the party always strongly protested against baseless allegations and resisted to the mudslinging.

The sun was about to be set and there was a usual great traffic rush on the GT Road. Akin Muridke there are some more busy cities like Gujranwala, Wazirabad and Gujarat lie on the GT Road. Those are considered bottlenecks as traffic invariably remains jammed at these centres for most time during the day. Definitely just before the sunset when people return home, these places are so crowded that one has to wait for a long time before making few meters move. When the Mo’azen (person who gives call for the Salaat) were reciting Adaan for  Maghreb Namaz in the main mosque of Jama’at-e-D’awut-e-Islami building the environs at Muridke, exactly at the same time a four ship formation of Mirage 2000 was taking off from Adampur airbase for an unknown destination.

The French made birds, having Indian tail signs, were maintaining very low altitude to avoid any acquaintance. However just before reaching the international border, they had no other choice but to jack up to give their weapons sufficient height for reaching target. At that precise moment the duty air defence and weapon controller sitting in a small mobile low level radar station monitored two small inward bound specks on his radar scope, entering Pakistan’s sovereign air space from east. The ever vigilant eye had no reason to keep any doubt in his mind, thus he immediately realized that he was looking at bandits. The formation was now depicted as a more menacing four ship flight on his radar scope. The rookie controller raised alarm and right away informed the air defense sector about a potential air strike inside Pakistan. By then the hostile birds had already released at least eight of AS-30L, ASM (Air to surface laser guided missiles usually carried by Mirage 2000 & SU30s of Indian air force) with ‘bitter affection’ for Jama’at-e-D’awut-e-Islami and were now turning back for their base.

Exactly at the time when the Indian four-ship formation was alarmingly close to the Pakistani air territory and was about to enter Lahore, the ADA (Air Defence Alert) hut at Mushaf Base of PAF was abuzz with bustle.  The ADA shifts were about to be changed, the on duty pilots were busy playing backgammon, a most favourite and popular time pass in all the squadrons of PAF. This ADA hut belonged to one of the oldest fighter squadrons, a crack F-16 unit. The silence in the hut was broken by a sudden call on the secured communication line from air defence sector headquarters. This message was a rather unexpected one. The duty controller of sector proclaimed in a panic ridden voice, ‘Scramble… scramble, two’. The Operations Officer in ADA hut had already punched the siren switch under the table in a scramble sequence so as to leave no doubt in the minds of the maintenance crew. In a matter of two minutes, two sleek silhouettes disappeared in the dying dusk over Sargodha.

The Imam was leading the Namaz at the D’awut-e-Islami’s mosque. Almost three hundred people were offering prayer behind him. Loudly he said, ‘Allah ho Akbar’ as soon as he knelt down for Sujdaa, all the files of Namazis followed him for the act in a remarkably synchronised manner. The Namazis were supposed to stay in Sujdaa for few seconds that was the time when suddenly a great pound ripped off everything. People in the surrounding heard a blast and were still shocked and baffled trying to guess the direction when three more hits made everything clear to them. The D’awut-e-Islami’s building was the target. Everyone, having thought in mind that probably some suicide bomber has struck, ran towards the site. The traffic on GT Road halted, life came to a stand still, there was a horrifying silence in the air except for screams and shouts for help. Those were coming from ruins and rubble of D’awut-e-Islami mosque and residential building.

For Indians it wasn’t that effortless this time, especially after the Muzaffarabad incident, where they took on an emergency hospital founded after the 2005 earthquake. The No.3 and 4 were still inside Pakistan when an air defence battery deployed in the suburbs of Lahore, equipped with MANPADS (Man Portable Air Defence System) type SAMs ( popularly known as Anza, obtained a lock on No.4 and released at least two missiles without wasting even a second. The poor guy couldn’t make an escape; the rest of the three had to enter back Indian air space with a heavy heart and certainly without their youngest colleague, a Flight Lieutenant.

Leader of the mission flew from Mushaf Base Sargodha contacted radar controller on radio and was given Angeles(slang used in the air forces for the altitude) and vectors for a possible interception. He turned in the direction and started searching his own radar scope for the reported brigands. He was briefed by the Controller that a four ship high speed formation had violated the air space of Pakistan three minutes ago and was now heading back. As he neared Lahore he also picked contact with a pair of retreating specks. The bandits were about to re-enter Indian air space. He informed the controller and sought permission to chase the hostile in their territory. He was sure that he could catch upon them in another 4 to 5 minutes and can shoot them down a few miles inside the hostile territory.

‘Negative, Sherdil leader, you are not cleared to chase the bandits. You must turn on a westerly heading and establish a CAP station 10 miles from the international border’ the ground control warned the leader. The dejected leader had no other choice but to accept the controller’s counselling. He desperately thought that had his bird flown a few miles faster things would have been different. Dolefully, the leader asked his number two to turn back. While he was turning back for the base suddenly he heard a yell on RT confirming that one of them got hit by some surface released weapon.

The event wasn’t a small one. It enraged the already infuriated Pakistanis who came out on the streets, from Khyber to Karachi. The national as well the international media was deliberately covering the Islamists in driving seats, although both had different connotations, yet coverage was conveying strong reaction of  Islamic parties and rightists. In big towns there were clashes between police and protesters who were demanding to declare a war against India for the latter’s deliberate and frequent aggressions. Those who had a longing for the Indo-Pak cordial relations and were chanting ‘Aman Ki Asha’ slogans had to retreat, go underground. The moderate political parties finding no other choice had to side with the right wing parties in their protest against the rival’s high handedness. Indian effigies were burnt in unprecedented processions taken out on short notices that clearly reflected revulsion and vengeance these two countries had for each other. In Islamabad protesters tried to march towards the Indian High Commission but were stopped by the army troops posted to block roads leading towards it. Surprisingly call by Islamic parties was greatly responded by Indian side of Kashmir, who choked the Srinagar and Baramula streets with their appearance. The Indian forces tried to crush processions with full force but to no avail. In Lal Chowk, Srinagar paramilitary forces opened fire at the mob, which caused death of few; it infuriated the already burning situation more. It was a bloody September for the inopportune Kashmiris, who remained calm for few years, but now looked for some sound reason to start their freedom movement once again.

To Isolate Pakistan Will Always Remain a Dream

By Sohail Parwaz

As I have already shared a chapter about the Indians playing foolish by going for a surgical strike in a haste thus getting an international embarrassment, now I am sharing chapter seventeen of my book ‘The Cornered Rogue” which is clearly predicting the birth of CPEC, the Iranian interest to join Pak China Block and Indians long for a limited strike inside Pakistan. Although the Indians have lost the most essential element of surprise but like a wounded snake they have still not given up the idea of launching a couple of local attacks inside Pakistan. Their only headache is that they don’t have a surety that Pakistan will keep it local and restricted.

The Indians have bagged a big embarrassment and humiliation because they were all set to teach a lesson to Pakistan and even Mr. Modi bragged to isolate Pakistan but on ground the situation is different; Iran showing interest to join CPEC, Russia is carrying out exercises with Pakistan army, CPEC is almost being finalised with the help of China while Turkey has thrown full weight behind Pakistan and amidst this one is failed to find ‘Isolation’ in the near and far distances. India is desperate and that’s known to all. She is expected to commit a blunder like a wounded snake as said earlier. Please read the following paragraphs from my fiction work in the above mentioned scenario.

“The Chinese invited Pakistani and Iranian prime ministers for dialogues on regional mutual interest. Outcome of this summit was quite fruitful for all the participants. As a first step, Pakistan was asked to construct the Gwadar-Turbat Highway which was to be linked to Chabahar-Zahedan Highway in Iran. At the same time already existing Gwadar coastal highway was to be expanded to link Karachi, Gwadar and Chabahar port of Iran. Chinese agreed to finance the project, certainly for their prime interest. Their dream to have an excess to the Central Asian Republics’ healthy markets was slowly coming true. Pakistan and China agreed to stand by Iranians in case of economic sanctions loomed by the Americans. Everyone seemed to be happy and contended except for Indians, who were told by Iranians about having a limited way in to the Chabahar seaport now.

The Americans protested to Chinese for sponsoring such ideas, which the Chinese bluntly turned down by saying that main regional players of the game have rights to watch their interest. America as an outsider has no right to object upon. Not only this, China warned the Americans not to push Pakistan against the wall. The Americans, however, realised the economical disaster back home that compelled them to wind up their bases, fleets in phases from all over the world including from the Persian Gulf. They didn’t pursue their protest but did keep the bitterness pending for some other appropriate time. Their main interest was to have a safe exit from Afghanistan. Rest happening in the region was of secondary importance to them for now. With Pakistan, India always had tense bilateral relations but now she was not happy with Iranians too – certainly for latter’s tainted attitude – without realising that; they asked for it themselves when they didn’t play some fair games with the Iranians. Deep grudge, vendetta against Pakistan was growing with every coming day.

The DGMI Pakistan Army had some very breath taking information available at his table. Neither it was hearsay nor some gossip. It was pure HUMINT information gathered through credible sources, corroborated by troops deployed on international border as well as the LOC. Major General Faisal, the Director General Military Intelligence wanted to be hundred percent sure about the authenticity of this information before reporting his commander, the Army Chief, General Muhammad Khalid. When he consulted his colleague DGMO, General Khurram Naeem on the issue, latter too had same sort of reports. The matter was quite serious as the intelligence agencies had picked some mass movement of the Indian troops towards the border areas in a few sectors. Some heavy concentration was seen in the South, in Rajasthan, up in the North in Kashmir. Now the DGMO had no reason not to talk to his counterpart in India on hotline. It was responded by General Ashoke, ‘Hello General! A pleasant surprise to hear from you after quite some time! I am sure all is well?’ ‘It was a surprise for us as well when the Indian troops were noted moving unannounced so close to the border at more than one location’ Khurram without much ado came to the point.

For a moment there was silence at the other end then came, not a very firm reply, ‘Actually General we are concentrating in Thar Desert near Bikaner for routine exercises that’s the only location where you could see us crowding.’ ‘Routine exercises? Though it’s entirely your command’s prerogative but frankly speaking this is not the part of the year when you people carry out routine exercises? Besides that, dumping of matching logistic reserves has been noted in the built up areas. Well that carries a big question mark General? That’s one thing, then there is yet another worrying issue’ General Khurram paused for a moment, then continued, ‘We have a mutual agreement that whenever any one of us would move so close to the international borders the other party would be informed about reasons or intentions in advance, if I am not wrong.’

Ashoke laughed faintly as if he was enjoying Khurram’s lost sleep, ‘But we aren’t near the international borders General.’ ‘You mean coming miles ahead of Bikaner in Desert, from where even vehicles tactical numbers are readable, can’t be termed as coming close to International borders, General?’ ‘Well if that’s so then I am informing you now that we intend carrying out our joint forces exercises’ Ashoke took an abrupt U turn to avoid any further cross questioning but the Pakistani DGMO had a lot more in his bag to shoot and he was in no mood to let him go like that. ‘That you are doing now, I am afraid, a bit late General Ashoke? So much so was for Thar sector but what about your assembling and movement in Kashmir sector? A mass scale movement has been observed on Jammu-Leh Road besides concentration at Drass, Kargil and Batalik’ General Khurram said in a plain voice. ‘Well that is a preemptive to counter any 1999 like Kargil adventure in future’ Ashoke came back with sarcasm. ‘But do you find some wingding, opposite to you, across the LOC now?’ enquired General Khurram with equal travesty and after giving a pause of few seconds he continued, ‘so we reserve the right to cater for these unusual and abnormal built ups?’ ‘As you wish’ Ashoke, having no other suitable, diplomatic term available, said helplessly. ‘General! I am sure that soon we will exchange details about the deployment all along the international border and at the LOC, if we are interested in keeping mutual trust intact ….. Have a good day General’ Khurram summed up and put down the phone.

Things were quite serious, needed an immediate attention. The talk about Indian Cold Start strategy, over heard by Gulsher few months back during a reception at Delhi was in the air among GHQ circles. The worried General thought for a while and then gave a buzz to the concerned director, asked him to prepare a brief about the Indian build ups on Eastern border, ASAP. Within 24 hours the Army Chief was informed through the CGS who immediately asked for a briefing at MO Directorate as early as possible since General Khalid wanted to brief the Supreme Commander of the Forces (The President) not before he himself was absolutely sure about the Indian intentions or future adventure plans if any”.

Why Indian Minorities Support Uprising in Kashmir?

By Sajjad Shaukat

India has deliberately intensified war-like situation with Pakistan since September 18, this year when “four fidayeen, highly-trained militants who were carrying guns and grenades stormed a base in Uri, close to the Line of Control (LoC) with Pakistan and killed 18 Indian soldiers, as Indian military sources said.

In this regard, India’s top civil and military officials and their media have been creating war-hysteria against Pakistan by accusing that the militants infiltrated across the Line of Control from Pakistan before attacking the base in Uri and Indian troops were “ready to give a befitting response.”

India has started concentration of troop, moving heavy arms and weapons along the LoC in the Indian side of the Indian held Kashmir.

Taking note of Indian threat of war, Pakistan’s armed forces have become high alert, and Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff Gen. Raheel Sharif said on September 23, the Army will defend “each and every inch” of Pakistan “no matter what the cost.”

It is notable that a few days before the attack at the Uri base, Indian Army Chief Dalbir Singh Suhaag stated that India has to be prepared for “swift, short nature of future wars” because of frequent ceasefire violations by Pakistan and its “new methods” used to keep Jammu and Kashmir on the boil.

In fact, with the help of Indian intelligence agencies, particularly RAW, India has itself arranged the Uri Base attack not only to defame Pakistan, but also to achieve a number of sinister aims.

Since July 8, 2016 against the martyrdom of the young Kashmir leader Burhan Wani by the Indian security forces in the Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK) in wake of continued sieges and prolonged curfew, Indian forces have martyred more than 100 innocent persons who have been protesting against the martyrdom of Burhan Wani.

Even, the minority groups of India have also been supporting the new phase of uprising in the Indian-held Kashmir by condemning brutal tactics of the Indian security forces, employed on the innocent Kashmiris.

In this regard, on August 29, this year, in a joint news conference at Srinagar, various Sikh bodies including Sikh Intellectual Circle Jammu and Kashmir, Shiromani Akali Dal, International Sikh Federation and Sikh Student Federation condemned the use of pellet guns and ‘brutal forces’ against unarmed protesters in Valley and favoured the right to self-determination for the people of the State.

Chairman of Sikh Intellectual Circle Jammu Kashmir, Narindar Singh Khalsa said, “The right to self determination should be given to the people of Jammu and Kashmir, which was promised by the then Prime Minister, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru. We (Sikh community) support people of Kashmir in their struggle of Plebiscite.”

Refuting the claims any security threat to the Sikh community, Singh elaborated, “Those who say that Sikhs are in danger and should be given security in Kashmir are the puppets of RSS and other Indian agencies. The fight of Kashmiris is not any religious fight, but a fight for justice and right to self-determination.” He also insisted upon New Delhi to engage in a meaningful dialogue with the Kashmiris and Pakistan.

Similar sentiments have, also, been coming from the Dalits (Low caste Hindus population of India) in the India controlled Kashmir, as they have supported the right of self-determination of the Kashmiri people, while condemning Indian extra-ordinary use of force to crush the new uprising in Kashmir.

However, question arises as to why minority groups like Sikhs and Dalits favour uprising and right of self-determination of the Kashmiris.

It is mentionable that India which apparently, claims to be the largest democracy, acting upon the principles of liberalism and secularism has broken all the records of violence, genocide and massacre perpetrated on various ethnic and religious groups, entailing the community of its own lower castes.

Taking note of the growing intolerance and plight of minorities in India on June 7, 2016, Tom Lantos Human Rights Commission of the US Congress examined the current state of human rights in India, challenges to fundamental freedoms and opportunities for advancement.

The report said, “Despite Constitutional provisions…abolishing the legal existence of untouchable or Dalit castes, the caste system remains deeply ingrained within Indian society, leading to ongoing discrimination. Dalit communities, which make up a quarter of India’s population, are disproportionately at risk of suffering from major human rights concern in India.”

It further wrote, “Religious minorities also face growing challenges. According to the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom’s most recent report, “In 2015, religious tolerance deteriorated and religious freedom violations increased in India. Minority communities, especially Christians, Muslims, and Sikhs experienced numerous incidents of intimidation, harassment, and violence, largely at the hands of Hindu nationalist groups…these actions, coupled with perceived crackdowns on groups or individuals critical of the Indian government, have many concerned that the rights to freedom of speech and freedom of association are being increasingly curtailed.”

Notably, since the leader of the ruling party BJP Narendra Modi became Prime Minister of India, various developments like unprecedented rise of Hindu extremism, persecution of minorities even of lower cast-Hindus, forced conversions of other religious minorities into Hindus, ban on beef and cow slaughter, inclusion of Hindu religious books in curriculum, creation of war-like situation with Pakistan etc. clearly show that encouraged by the Hindu fundamentalist outfits such as BJP, RSS VHP, Bajrang Dal and Shiv Sena including other similar parties have been promoting religious and ethnic chauvinism in India by propagating ideology of Hindutva (Hindu nationalism). Especially, assaults on Christians, Muslims, including their places of worships and property have been intensified by the fanatic Hindu mobs.

Instances of ‘Hinduized police’ and the biased judiciary is related to many cases such as Gujarat programmes, Sikh riots, violence against Christians, Dalits and other minorities whose cases are still unregistered-pending or unheard, while in many cases culprits have been exonerated due to the interference of the Mod-led government.

It is worth-mentioning that faced with declining provincial power under the centralizing government of Indira Gandhi, Akalis mobilized the Sikh peasantry in a major campaign for Punjab’s autonomy in 1980. The initiative centered on a combination of economic, cultural, constitutional, and religious demands. Between August 1980 and September 1981, the Akali Dal held seven peaceful agitations. The party decided in February 1981 to strive for the implementation of the Anandpur Sahib Resolution. The resultant Dharam Yudh Morcha (Righteous Struggle) of 1981-84 presented four key demands: recasting the Indian constitution to increase states’ autonomy, the return of Chandigarh to Punjab, state control over river waters, and an all-India gurudwaras act.

Nevertheless, it was owing to injustices by the Indian rulers that the Akali Dal’s adoption of more narrow demands like the constitutional recognition of Sikhs as separate nation and declaration of Amritsar as a holy city followed the raising of the Khalistan slogan by non-Akali Sikhs in 1981 and a sudden decline in Sikh-Hindu relations after the murder of Punjabi Hindu press baron Lala Jagat Narain in 1981.

Meanwhile, India’s Operation Blue Star added fuel to the injuries of Sikhs. It was a military operation which occurred between 3–8 June 1984, ordered by the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi to control over the Harmandir Sahib (Golden Temple) complex, the holiest shrine of the Sikhs in Amritsar, Punjab, and to arrest Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale and his followers from the complex buildings. Bhindranwale was the only leader who had boldly been fighting for the genuine rights of the Sikhs.

Indian Army led by General Kuldip Singh Brar killed all 251 Sikhs along with Jarnail Singh Bhi. The brutality of the ‘Operation Blue Star’ was not confined to the Harmandir Sahib. Indian armed forces simultaneously attacked 40 other historical gurdwaras all over East Punjab. When Sikhs in other states came to know about the desecration of the Harmandir Sahib and massacre of their brethren, they quickly left for Punjab. New Delhi tried to stop them before they could reach Punjab. Many Sikhs were assassinated on the way and many others were arrested. According to an estimate, about 50,000 Sikhs were killed within a few days. The whole Amritsar city was sealed and was burnt.

In the same year of November, two dedicated Sikhs named Beant Singh and Satwant Singh who were posted at Premier Indira Gandhi’s residence in New Delhi, assassinated her. Then Hindu riots erupted in the capital and other cities in which more than 15,000 Sikhs were murdered in broad daylight by the supporters of Indira Gandhi, while police watched silently so as to provide the Hindus with free hand to massacre Sikhs.

Afterwards, Sikhs organized themselves into an armed power in order to fight the Indian state terrorism. Many Sikhs left India to escape religious persecution. Sikhs have spread out all over the world to keep the movement of Khalistan alive. In this respect, their struggle is still going on.

In this context, a renowned scholar, Dr. Sangat Singh writes in his book, “The Sikhs in History”, remarks, “The Indian government has killed over 1 million to 1.2 million Sikhs. Since 1947, Indian government has also killed 50,000 Christians and 100,000 Muslims. The only way to stop this state terrorism is to create a Khalistan state, where Sikhs and other religious people can enjoy their freedom.

It is noteworthy that in wake of new phase of uprising in the Indian Occupied Kashmir (IOK), pressure on the Indian government has been mounting both domestically and internationally.

In this respect, A. S. Dulat, former chief of India’s spy agency RAW, published in the magazine, ‘The Wire’ on August 27, 2016 said “Pakistan’s role is not the only catalyst for the crisis, talks about the need for the Indian government to start talking to separatist leaders in the Hurriyat Conference, Pakistan, and other important political players.” Indicating as to how Vajpayee’s and Narendra Modi’s strategies on Kashmir are poles apart and elaborates on why Kashmiris warmed to Vajpayee, he stressed, “India should engage in principled dialogue with people in the Valley, instead of taking a naïve and aggressive line.” His condemnation of the Modi government for not talking to Hurriyat and for its high handedness in IOK is spot on. He rightly concludes that the Kashmiri uprising is 100% indigenous.

And in response to the letter of Pakistan’s Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif, on August 19, this year, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon deplored the killings of the Kashmiris in Indian-held Kashmir, and urged India and Pakistan to settle Kashmir and other issues through dialogue by offering his “good offices”.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had pledged to emphatically highlight violence against the innocent Kashmiris in the IOK during the annual session of the UN General Assembly. While, addressing the General Assembly on September 21, Prime Minister Sharif said that Kashmiris had to face atrocities and barbarism from India, which made Burhan Wani, the face of freedom movement. He added, “Pakistan fully supports the demand of the Kashmiri people for self-determination, as promised by several Security Council resolutions. Their struggle is a legitimate one for liberation from alien occupation.”

At this critical juncture, pressure is mounting on the fundamentalist government of Modi on a larger scale, Sikhs who reside abroad and have effective organizations in the West should use the Kashmir uprising to vent anti-Indian sentiments and their grievances against the state, especially in Punjab.

And with Sikhs and Dalits’ support, Muslims almost become a majority in this strategically vital area of IOK. Hence, they should avail this opportunity.

Besides giving a matching response to Indian war-hysteria, Pakistan’s media must keeps on highlighting the Indian atrocities in the Indian held Kashmir, as war of liberation in the Valley has been accelerated. Pakistan’s top officials and embassies abroad must continuously point out the Kashmir issue, while emphasizing the right of self-determination of the people of Kashmir, as recognized by the UN resolutions.

Email: sajjad_logic@yahoo.com

The Kashmir ‘Intifada’

Ishaal Zehra

India is making desperate efforts to deflect the international attention from situation in Occupied Kashmir. The attack in Uri sector (Indian occupied Kashmir) and its aftermath is the same old “play victim card” drama by India. Even what is more interesting is that despite Indian army Intel and security failures leading to the death of 17 soldiers, Indians are absolute certain about attackers origin? Not over-reacting, but after every terror incident in India, everyone knows what is coming next. The Indian accusations against Pakistan have become as clichéd as Bollywood scripts. It’s easy to put a blame on Pakistan and its army but history is evident they could never prove it with concrete evidence. I mean, come on “toothpaste” cannot be an evidence for indicting a sovereign and a responsible nuclear state in act of terrorism.

Prime Minister Mian Nawaz Sharif, while addressing at UNGA called upon the permanent members of the Security Council to fulfill their responsibility with regard to the Jammu and Kashmir dispute, which is one of the oldest internationally recognized unresolved disputes on the agenda of the UN Security Council. “Burhan Wani, the young leader murdered by Indian forces, has emerged as the symbol of the latest Kashmiri Intifada, a popular and peaceful freedom movement, led by Kashmiris, young and old, men and women, armed only with an undying faith in the legitimacy of their cause, and a hunger for freedom in their hearts”, he added.

The word ‘intifada’ was very aptly used for the Kashmiri freedom strugglers. ‘Intifada’ is an Arabic word literally meaning "tremor", "shivering", "shuddering” and is a key concept in contemporary Arabic usage referring to a legitimate uprising against oppression. The word ‘Intifada’ became famous after the Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The first intifada lasted from 1987 to 1993, and the second began in 2000. Today, Kashmir is getting similar to Palestinian struggle in so many ways. The blood-spattered Israeli oppression of Palestinian land is very much equaling to the Indian oppression in Kashmir.

In the backdrop of PM Sharif’s meetings with the world leaders on resolution of Kashmir issue, the OIC Secretary General Iyad Ameen Madani, while chairing a meeting of OIC contact group on Kashmir on the sidelines of the 71st session of UN General Assembly in New York, has expressed deep concern over the grave situation in the occupied Kashmir and called for an immediate cessation of Indian oppression and atrocities. The OIC, founded in 1969, is a 57-member organisation which traditionally supports the right of self determination.

Expressing their solidarity with the Kashmiri people, the OIC group reaffirmed their resolve to remain the voice of the Kashmiris' at the international stage. Indian law-enforcement officials are long guilty of extrajudicial killings, torture, rape and enforced disappearances in Indian occupied Kashmir. While Pakistan is committed to peacefully resolve the Jammu and Kashmir dispute in accordance with the resolutions of the Security Council, India should also honour its human rights obligations as well as its commitments to the Kashmiri people.

The Pakistani PM at UNGA called upon the international community and the UN to live up to their promise of the right to self-determination of the people of Jammu and Kashmir in accordance with the relevant UN Security Council resolutions and wishes of the Kashmiri people. The fact remains that the non resolution of the Jammu and Kashmir dispute is a constant source of tension and instability in the region and a threat to international peace and security. The PM also said that Pakistan wants peace with India. "We have gone the extra mile to achieve this, repeatedly offering a dialogue to address all outstanding issues", he said while addressing the United Nations General Assembly.

Official sources however said that they have noted the strong support which Turkey and Azerbaijan extended to Pakistan during the meet that called for “cessation of violence” in Kashmir.

Obviously India would have never allowed Pakistan’s narrative on Kashmir go uncontested at the UN, and she did what she had to. The Uri attack was so timely planned and the after act drama was so strongly put up by the Indian media that it overshadowed the legitimate issue of plight of Kashmiris at Indian hands. Furthering her agenda, India has also launched two of her stooge American lawmakers to introduce a bill in the US House of Representatives designating Pakistan as a state sponsoring terrorism, on the plea that it was time the US stopped paying the country for its "betrayal". The 'Pakistan State Sponsor of Terrorism Designation Act (HR 6069)’ has been moved by Sen. Ted Poe (Republican) and Sen. Dana Rohrabacher (Democrat). Yes, India can lobby in the US. India has money and we all know how system works in the US. However, from India's investment only few congressmen and senators can be bought and this will produce no results as Pakistan is also immune to India’s wicked tactics now and play her cards well.